Biomass supply chain and production costs assess the agro-industry development and biofuel production chains by looking at

• Accessibility to technology infrastructure and availability of necessary human skills.

• Opportunities for rural development through production systems, e. g., feedstock supplier inclusive of smallholder and combined commercial — smallholder schemes.

• Processing waste by-products into valuable co-products focusing on use in local settings.

• Costs of production of the biofuel at the factory gate and distribution to domestic and international markets.

• Implications for economic viability of production chains.

12.5.2.2 Module 3

Agricultural market outlook projects the impacts of biofuel production and bio­fuel policies on agricultural markets in the context of the analyzed country over a 10-year outlook period solving the following questions:

• How much land will be required to satisfy future food demand?

• What is the outlook for main food crops in the analyzed country under different conditions, e. g., biofuel production, lower oil prices? What is the impact for major agricultural commodities in the country?

• What are the implications of biofuel policies, domestic and global, for biofuel development in the analyzed country?

12.5.2.3 Module 4

Economy-wide effects uses innovative tools including:

• Tools that cover 87 countries and country groupings.

• Use of GLOMAB FAO’s multicountry-CGE model for agriculture and bioenergy developed in FAO (Aziz, 2009).

• Diverse set of biomass coverage: maize, cassava, sugarcane (ethanol), oilseeds, palm oil (biodiesel), agricultural residues, woody biomass (cel — lulosic ethanol, biopower).

• Separate treatment for temperate biodiesel (using soybeans) from tropi­cal biodiesel (using palm oil).

• Inclusion of first generation biofuels (starch — or sugar-ethanol, biodiesel) and second generation biofuels (cellulosic ethanol).

• Explicit treatment of biopower, not just biofuels.

12.5.2.4 Module 5

Household-level food security assesses how price increases will affect differ­ent groups:

• Select food security crop list.

• Trade position of the country according to the single crop.

• Based on household income and expenditure data by crop, assesses the household welfare impacts by population group, focusing on the poorer quintile.

• Net consumers: Those who buy more food than they sell will be hurt by higher prices.

• Net producers: Those who sell more food than they buy benefit from higher prices.

12.5.2.5 Module 6

Household welfare impacts are based on the net welfare impact calculated from the difference between production and consumption.

CD Suitable (60-80%)

CD Moderately

Suitable (40-60%)

FIGURE 12.2 Suitability index for cassava under tillage-based production system at low level of input (area available) in Tanzania.