Four years later and there are those who point out that progress on the target to date has been patchy, though impressive in places. Certainly there are indications that the grandiose, centrally-administered scheme has failed to meet expectations. New forecasts from Mercom Capital, for example, put India’s cumulative solar installations at just above the 3-GW mark, with 734 MW newly installed in 2014. However, with earlier calendar year installations forecast at about 800 MW, the figure indicates a 20 percent drop in installations year-on-year.

Furthermore, according to the Ministry of New and Renewable Energy (MNRE), the total grid-connected solar power installed capacity at the end of the financial year 2013-2014, which ended in March, stood at 2,632 MW. Of this, only 26 percent (688 MW) was added under the JNNSM, whereas about 50 percent (1,323 MW) was added under various state policy initiatives.

Despite this, Mercom is forecasting that 2015 installations will more than double, reaching approximately 1,800 MW in the year as the market stabilises following the election of Prime Minister Narendra Modi and in the wake of an August decision not to impose anti-dumping duties.

“The Indian solar industry is visibly upbeat since the elections and especially after getting past the anti-dumping case,” explains Raj Prabhu, CEO and Co-founder of Mercom Capital Group. “Recent cancellations of coal mining licenses by the Supreme Court amid rising coal imports and increasing costs, and continuing power shortages have all contributed to the positive momentum in the solar sector,” added Prabhu.

The MNRE meanwhile cites Gujarat as the pioneer, having commissioned 860.4 MW under state-backed incentives, close to a third of the nation’s total installed capacity. Madhya Pradesh and Maharasthra followed with 2013-2014 state-backed installations of 175 MW and 150 MW, respectively. Conversely, Rajasthan, which has the second highest total capacity, installed most of this under the JNNSM, with only 22 MW coming under the state solar policy support. According to MNRE, the state is also in the process of allotting 50 projects, each of 1 MW capacity.

Figure 1: Total installed capacity as of March 31, 2014 by state, including capacity installed under JNNSM, state policies, capacity under Renewable Purchase Obligations (RPO), and Renewable Energy Certificate (REC) based projects. Source: MNRE (Ministry of New and Renewable Energy)

Central Government Stands Up for Solar 

While the growth of India’s solar sector may so far have depended more on state-wide — rather than national — initiatives, there is no shortage of positive reinforcement from central government.

In a bid to drive the JNNSM programme forward, In the last year MNRE released a new installation goal of 15 GW by 2019 that is to be established through three tranches of huge 500-MW to 1-GW utility-scale solar parks. Meanwhile, MNRE also has recently revealed 12 locations in seven states where so-called ultra-mega solar projects could be set up. Developed over the next five years in collaboration with state governments, the projects would have a combined capacity of some 20 GW. Andhra Pradesh alone has apparently identified sites that could support 2,500 MW of these so-called mega PV installations while the largest project will be developed in the state of Jammu Kashmir with a capacity of 7.5 GW. Rajasthan will host three 1-GW projects while Madhya Pradesh and Punjab will each host two large projects with a total combined capacity of 3.5 GW.

However, undoubtedly the most striking development is a new 100 GW target for solar PV by 2022. According to comments attributed to India’s energy minister, Piyush Goyal, the JNNSM target is to be multiplied by a factor of five with the government working specifically towards achieving grid parity.

“On the solar front, we believe there is enormous potential to take it to 100,000 MW in next five to seven years,” Goval told reporters recently, adding: “Renewable energy may seem expensive, but in the long run, it scores over conventional energy. The subsidy regime needs to be more robust, targeted and sustainable. The government of India stands committed to lead the revolution in the renewable energy sector. Transparency, honesty, world-class technology will be the key to dealing with key challenges.”

And perhaps it’s no coincidence that the new government is fully embracing solar, given that in its election manifesto, the now-ruling government party known as BJP pledged to expand the JNNSM. And, perhaps more significantly, Modi was formerly chief minister for the singularly outperforming — in terms of Indian solar installations — Gujarat.

If there is a question mark over the central-government-backed mega solar project (500 MW+) strategy it concerns the long-term sustainability of such a programme. Mercom Capital’s analysts argue that by exclusively developing large-scale and mega solar projects, India is going in the opposite direction to many other markets which have seen a shift to residential and commercial rooftop projects. Transmission and distribution losses are estimated at about 25% in parts of India and land availability and the generally poor grid infrastructure also present significant challenges, Mercom believes.