If one wants to assess the future of nuclear energy, it is, of course, useful to compare its cost with that of other means of electricity production. We report in table 2.19 some cost estimates, given in US0 per kWh.

The table shows that, among the renewable energies, only wind energy has reached competitiveness with fossil fuels and nuclear power. However,

Table 2.19. Cost estimates in US0 per kWh for different energy production technologies.

1 This figure includes investment cost for a new plant with 5% actualization rate. At present the cost of nuclear electricity is much lower (down to 2^ per kWh) since the initial investment has been paid off [39].

this close competitiveness is only attained if the electricity produced by the windmills is used as input to the general network. Biomass may also be com­petitive in specific sites if no long-distance transportation of the bio-fuel is required. In the future, thermal solar energy might reach competitiveness in well-insolated sites, and if long-term energy storage is not needed. To be complete one should stress that wind energy, small biomass facilities, and solar devices might be very suitable in remote sites where no electricity network exists. Also, energy saving efforts should have a high priority: it is largely preferable to invest a given amount of money to save, say, 7 TWh annually, than to build an additional 1 GWe facility.

The table shows that the only competitive and massive energy producing method which could be an alternative to fossil fuel facilities is nuclear power. However, the market trends favour combined gas fuelled facilities which reach very high efficiencies and involve investment costs only one-third of those required for a nuclear facility, even in a favourable institutional context like France. A ‘rebirth’ of nuclear power is only probable, in the not-too-distant future, if a strong policy to reduce greenhouse gas emissions is put into effect worldwide. This ‘rebirth’ will probably be possible only if, in public opinion, the nuclear waste problem is solved satisfactorily, and if a Chernobyl-type accident is demonstrated to be impossible.