JOHN WALLS

ABSTRACT

In this paper we outline the origins of the nuclear power industry in the nuclear weapons programme of the Second World War, and chart the growth of the nuclear industry through the 1950s and 1960s, and its subsequent decline during the 1970s and 1980s as a result of increasing costs and economic crisis, coupled with high profile accidents at nuclear plants at Three Mile Island and Chernobyl. We then explore the claim that we are witnessing a ‘‘nuclear renaissance”, characterised by a growth in the construction of new nuclear plants in the West but particularly in Asia. Three main factors have led to arguments for nuclear energy gaining greater traction: concerns over climate change and the need to promote low carbon energy technologies; the need to enhance energy security; and the need to meet large increases in demand for electricity particularly in developing countries. We then outline six variables that have the potential to impose limits on any large scale expansion of nuclear energy. Finally we explore to what extent the March 2011 disaster at the Fukushima nuclear plant in Japan is likely to negatively impact the ‘‘nuclear renaissance”.

‘This research was funded in part by the Economic and Social Research Council under The Waste of the World programme (RES000230007). My thanks to Dr Galina Walls and Professor Roy Harrison for comments on earlier drafts.

1 Introduction

Up until a few years ago, it appeared that nuclear power no longer had a place in the energy future of the West. In the aftermath of the accident at Three Mile Island and the Chernobyl disaster, as well as the problem of significant cost overruns for new nuclear plants, and the continuing problem of nuclear waste disposal and spiralling decommissioning costs, nuclear appeared to be an industry with no viable future.1 However in recent years we have seen the return of nuclear power as an attractive option given the urgent need to meet the increased demand for electricity, especially in developing countries, as a potential mitigation strategy against climate change and to bolster energy security. With 55 nuclear reactors currently under construction and many more ordered we fre­quently hear talk of a ‘‘Nuclear Renaissance’’.2 Enthusiasm for new nuclear build at present is concentrated in Asia and Russia with a much slower devel­opment in Europe and North America.11

In this paper, we outline the origins of the nuclear energy industry in the nuclear weapons programme of the Second World War; discuss the expansion of nuclear energy into the post war period and its role in the modernisation and industrialisation process; then chart the declining fortunes of the industry and its contemporary resurgence as a potential means of mitigating climate change. We suggest that whilst new nuclear plants will come on line in increasing numbers over the next few decades, they will be built at a much smaller pace than desired and anticipated, due to a range of factor which we explore below. Nonetheless nuclear power will continue to play a role in the energy systems of many developed and developing countries, as they try and move toward more sus­tainable energy systems. The extent of this role will depend on the ability of nation states to navigate the challenges that face plans for new nuclear plants.