Prior Distributions for Bayesian Updating

Included for comparison, Figure D.18 shows the calculated flaw rates (non-through wall). Listed in Table D.10 are the RR and FW weld failure rates that represent the state-of-knowledge at T = 15 years of operation. Listed in Table D.11 are the RC and HPI/NMU prior weld failure rates. The failure rates represent the frequency per weld-year of a through-wall flaw resulting in a leakage of less than or equal to the Technical Specification limit for unidentified leakage. In summary, the derivation of prior weld failure rates includes the following steps:

• Determine the number of through-wall leaks from PIPExp database. Includes performing a trend analysis.

• From the PIPExp database, determine the appropriate exposure terms.

• Establish the susceptibility of different weld locations to degradation.

• Combine the output from the previous steps to determine prior failure rates applicable to welds in the RR and FW systems.

Подпись:Подпись:Подпись: T3 CD ^ 1.00E-04 о g I— z 1.00E-05 Подпись:1.00E-02

1.00E-06

Figure D.18 Prior Frequency of Non-Through Wall IGSCC in RR Piping

System

Pipe Size [NPS]

Weld Configuration

Lognormal Distribution Parameters

Mean [1/Weld-yr]

Range Factor (RF)

RR

12

Elbow-to-pipe

3.95E-04

10

Nozzle-to-safe-end

1.59E-04

10

Pipe-to-safe-end

7.49E-05

15

Pipe-to-sweepolet

7.02E-05

15

Pipe-to-reducer

1.40E-04

15

RR

22

Pipe-to-end-cap

7.67E-04

10

RR

22

Pipe-to-sweepolet

1.18E-04

15

Pipe-to-cross

1.77E-04

15

RR

28

Pipe-to-elbow

7.19E-04

10

Nozzle-to-safe-end

1.50E-04

10

Pipe-to-safe-end

6.74E-04

10

Pipe-to-valve

2.25E-04

10

Pipe-to-pump

2.25E-04

10

Pipe-to-tee

1.25E-04

10

Pipe-to-pipe

4.99E-05

20

Pipe-to-cross

7.49E-05

20

Pipe-to-reducer

7.49E-05

20

FW

12

Nozzle-to-safe-end

6.20E-06

100

Elbow-to-pipe

3.32E-07

100

Pipe-to-pipe

5.17E-07

100

Pipe-to-reducer

1.55E-06

100

Pipe-to-reducing-tee

4.65E-07

100

FW

20

Elbow-to-pipe

4.00E-06

100

Elbow-to-valve

6.00E-07

100

Pipe-to-reducing-tee

4.80E-07

100

Pipe-to-reducer

7.20E-07

100

No failure rates derived for welds in NPS14 piping; it is assumed that the data on welds in NPS12 piping is also representative of welds in NPS14 piping._______________________________________