20.08.2015   Estimating Loss-of-Coolant Accident (LOCA) Frequencies Through the Elicitation Process

ELICITATION TRAINING EXERCISE RESULTS

ELICITATION TRAINING EXERCISE RESULTS

As part of the panel member kick-off meeting in February 2003, elicitation training was provided for the elicitation panel. The training involved the panel members answering a series of almanac-type questions for which numerical answers were available. The panel members provided both their best estimate of the answer as well as relative ratios with respect to other quantitative responses. In this way the panel members got an appreciation of the benefits of the anchoring process used throughout the elicitation process.

C. 1 Training Questions

The following questions were used in the training exercise.

Q1. According to the 2000 census, how many men 65 or over were there in the U. S.?

Q2. In 1995, how many American men age 65 or older suffered from the chronic conditions listed?

Q3. What is the ratio of the rate for men 45- 64 years old to the rate for men 65 and older for each of the conditions listed?

Q4. What is the ratio of the rate for men under 45 years old to the rate for men 45 — 64 years old for each of the conditions listed?

The answer to Q1 is 14.4 million. The chronic conditions referred to in Q2, Q3, and Q4 and the corresponding answers are listed in Table C.1.

Table C.1 Correct Value (CV) Results to Elicitation Training Questions

___________________ Q2_______________ Q3_______________ Q4

Condition

Rate per 1000

(Age 45-64 rate) / (Age 65+ rate)

(Under 45 rate) / (Age 45-64 rate)

Arthritis

404.7

0.44

0.13

Cataracts

125.1

0.13

0.11

Diabetes

123.6

0.50

0.10

Hearing Loss

366.8

0.56

0.20

Heart Disease

362.4

0.40

0.17

Prostate Disease

118.0

0.30

0.054