Day 3 — Thursday, February 6, 2003 Use of Base Case in Elicitation

The base cases LOCA frequencies will provide absolute LOCA estimates that each panel member will use to anchor the relative likelihood of LOCAs in other (non-base case) piping systems. Each panel member will also determine how well the base cases depict expected current and future LOCA performance in the piping systems that they model. It is therefore not important that a panel member agree with the modeling assumptions, approach, and results provided by the base case team. However, it is imperative that the base case development is completely understood by each panel member. Each panel member will be able to correct perceived deficiencies in the calculated base case frequencies during the elicitation. Each panel member will also determine, relative to the base case results, the LOCA contributions of other (non base case) piping systems, and the contributions and uncertainty induced by the primary piping system variables.