Uncertainties

3.1.1 The time perspective of nuclear waste

The most discussed aspect of nuclear waste is its longevity. Previously nuclear waste was the only issue for social decision-making that was widely discussed in very long time perspectives. Today climate change is discussed in such long time perspectives, and we also have a general discussion on sustainable development that does not have any time limits (Hansson, 2011). Hansson further says that discussions on decisions related to very long time perspectives include the issue of how to evaluate outcomes in the future. For example, is the value of a human life similar or dissimilar if it relates to assessing a final repository in e. g. 10,000 years hence, or in our time? And how should uncertain outcomes be evaluated? We seldom know about the consequences, in a hundred year perspective, of a decision taken today. This uncertainty has often resulted in not caring for the long-term consequences of the actions. The nuclear waste issue has become a pioneering case in the sense that uncertainties have not hindered us from considering long-term consequences seriously. Hansson’s concluding observations are that it is not the uncertainty per se that has resulted in the high attention and controversy regarding future effects of a nuclear waste repository, but rather the combination of certainty in specific areas (e. g. radioactive decay over time, etc.) and uncertainty in other areas (e. g. future generations’ knowledge, intentions, etc.). Finally Hansson notes that the International Climate Panel (IPCC) focuses on a time perspective of around 100 years and utilizes a kind of "trimmed discounting" in the work. He concludes that this is rather unprincipled reasoning, and suggests that much would be achieved by approaching the climate change issues in a way similar to that of nuclear waste.