Multi-objective decision making

Multi-objective decision making builds on previous multi-objective (sometimes called multi­attribute) valuation of the alternatives. Because the different ways to solve the problem tend to be mutually exclusive, the selection of the "best" option requires the formulation of trade­offs among the different attributes used to evaluate the performance of the several possible alternatives. Such trade-offs require a multi-objective analysis (see above) in order to assess and compare the relative merits of the alternatives. In practice, a multi-objective analysis usually does not yield a single optimal alternative. Therefore, the choice of the "best" solution requires that the decision maker’s preferences and value trade-offs among conflicting objectives be clearly articulated and made explicit in the selection process. A vast number of publications on multi-attribute decision making is available from which one can extract useful information and guidance on how to perform such decision modelling. The following selection may serve as an introductory reading to the comprehensive overview of approaches, methods and tools for different multi-objective decision applications (Bohanec & Rajkovic, 1999; Bohanec, 2003; Munda et. al., 1995).

3. Radioactive waste disposal

3.1 Perception of radioactive waste disposal issues

The recent international perspective can be found in the report "Resource or waste? The politics surrounding the management of spent nuclear fuel in Finland, Germany, Russia and Japan" (SKB, 2011). A clear historical divide can be discerned between countries that decided to reprocess spent nuclear fuel and those that chose final disposal. Three of the countries mentioned — Japan and Russia and, in an earlier phase, Germany, have considered spent nuclear fuel as a resource rather than as waste, and for that reason invested in reprocessing. The report provides an account of how and why these countries chose different alternatives; why, despite a common basic approach, they gradually came to aim at completely different strategies and methods for spent nuclear fuel management. Today Germany has totally abandoned its previous reprocessing strategy, Russia has maintained its strategy, but also steered certain operations toward direct disposal, and Japan has recently completed a major industrial reprocessing facility. The issue of final disposal is, however, far from solved in Germany and Japan. In order to understand why different countries have chosen one alternative over another, and how a strategy changed over time, the authors chose to elaborate on eight key dimensions. Five of these relate to nuclear power issues, such as whether or not a country produces nuclear weapons, has an expanding or stagnating nuclear power sector, weak or strong competence in the field of nuclear energy, good or poor prerequisites for a final repository, and whether or not it has domestic uranium resources. Three other dimensions cover political characteristics, i. e. whether or not the country had or has a strong or weak anti-nuclear movement, whether it is a democracy or a dictatorship, and whether or not it is characterized by strong or weak local political power. The latter aspect is seen as essential to issues of local acceptance of a spent nuclear fuel repository. The reasons behind different choices appear to be the military use of spent nuclear fuel and the absence of democratic discussion (Russia), consensual political decision-making (Finland), and situations of strong political opposition and local disputes (Germany and Japan).

In the project "Nuclear waste: From an Energy Resource to a Disposal Problem" (SKB, 2011) Jonas Anshelm analyzed the nuclear waste debate since the 1950s, including issues of risk, responsibility, design of a final repository and safety of the technology. The author points to the importance of elucidating the different kinds of answers that have been given concerning these issues in different time periods. The challenge is to understand how changing technological, political, economic and scientific circumstances have influenced perceptions and debates. Such clarification can broaden the perspective and facilitate an understanding of the complexity of the issue. The project observes shifts in meaning and public opinion changes regarding central aspects on the nature of nuclear waste — as a resource or as a waste, and the characteristics of the waste — as well as of its associated risks. Likewise, issues of who has responsibility for the final repository, what should be considered scientific facts concerning bedrock characteristics, and the sustainability of the technological solutions, have been subjected to controversy throughout the period. It is striking, Anshelm notes, that central actors have been both utterly confident in their opinions and able to assume totally different points of view in new situations. This characterization applies to both proponents and opponents of nuclear power. In summary, this contribution illustrates that what is perceived to be true, valid, correct, morally right, and rational with respect to the debated issue has recurrently been subject to renegotiation and change during the past half-century. This has resulted in a number of serious conflicts since the 1970s. The issue has currently reached a level of stabilization and does not exemplify a strong national or local controversy. It is, however, reasonable to assume that current views on what is true and right regarding the nuclear waste issue — on which there is some consensus today — will, in the future, also be subjected to renegotiations in the light of scientific, technological, economic and political reorientations. This already appears to have been triggered in a number of countries, e. g. Germany, Japan, Slovenia, by the consequences from the damaged NPP Fukushima I after the quake and tsunami in March 2011. It could be viewed that this accident encouraged the German government to announce that it will bring forward the closure of its nuclear power stations to 2022, 14 years earlier than originally planned, while Japan considers a review of plans for construction of new NPPs, just like Slovenia in its new National Energy Programme currently under debate.