Declining budgets and slipping targets

image030 Подпись: r BR/TctaL 35,26% image032 Подпись: 20 £

While the public commitment of J apan’s Government to the fast breeder reactor and closed fuel cycle has not wavered, the fast breeder reactor R&D budget has steadily declined, and, by 1996 had dipped below a 10 percent share of the nuclear R&D budget. The fast breeder reactor program share of total nuclear R&D peaked at 35 percent in early 1970s during the construction of Joyo. In 1989 it fell to 20 percent (¥77 billion) during peak construction at Monju. Since 1989, both the fast breeder reactor budget and its share of Japan’s total nuclear R&D budget have steadily declined. Cumulative spending on fast breeder reactor R&D from 1956 to 2007 was ¥1,480 billion, representing approximately 12 percent of total spending. Figure 4.1 shows the budget trends for all nuclear energy and fast breeder reactor R&D. The

Подпись: Total! Nuclear Budget Подпись: Fail Breeder Reactor Подпись: FBFUTolaU

1967 1970 1973 1976 1979 1902 19B5 19ЙЙ 1991 1994 1997 2000 2003 2006

Figure 4.1 History of Japan’s R&D budgets for nuclear power and breeder reactors.

Peak-year budgets and fast breeder reactor budget percentages are indicated.

target date for fast breeder reactor commercialization has slipped by 80 years in a period of 50 years. In 1956, the Long Term Plan anticipated commercialization in the 1970s. In 1967, the year that the PNC was established, fast breeder reactor commercialization was pushed back to the 1980s and the PNC decided that an Advanced Thermal Reactor (ATR) was required as an interim reactor between the light-water reactor and the fast breeder reactor. In 1987, the JAEC confirmed that light-water reactors would remain the main power generation source for the foreseeable future, and the commercialization target for fast breeder reactors was pushed back to the 2020-2030s. The most recent JAEC Framework for Nuclear Policy, which supersedes the Long Term Plan, has revised the goal for fast breeder reactor commercialization to approximately 2050 (table 4.1).4

Plan Year

Anticipated Completion

Comments

1956

1970

As a main source of power

1967

1980

An advanced thermal reactor is required as an interim solution

1987

—2020-2030

The light-water reactor is selected as the main source of power for the foreseeable future

2000

—2030 or later

Breeder reactors may be one of the future options

2006

2050 or later

Table 4.1 History of the commercialization schedule for breeder reactors in Japan.