Risks and uncertainties

From the foregoing, one can derive five principal risk areas for utilities and sponsors of nuclear power projects, i. e., planning, construction, electricity market rates, operational, and waste management/decommissioning (CITI, 2009).

15.4.1 Planning

The lead times from the decision to build a new nuclear power plant until breaking ground are usually measured in multiple years up to a decade. Site selection, acquisition and regulatory site approval, obtaining bids from vendors and bid evaluation, stakeholder involvement and finance arrange­ments are time-consuming steps and often have to be carried out sequen­tially rather than in parallel. Recent early site permits in the US took three to four years from application until the permit was granted. Moreover, nuclear power remains controversial in many jurisdictions and opposition to new developments often results in lengthy hearings and court involve­ments and thus extended planning timelines. Many governments have rec­ognized the added uncertainties in lengthy planning processes and have begun to revise and streamline procedures so as to expedite lead times and reduce uncertainties for nuclear power project sponsors. From a financial perspective, the planning uncertainty faced by developers is the least risky element and no real threat to the financial integrity (CITI, 2009). Still, a utility might have spent several tens of millions on site acquisition, design certification and legal procedures. In addition, a denied site or construction certification after several years may put the utility in a position short of generating capacity with the need to resort to costly alternative suppliers.