For the proper management of carbon budget in the future, land-ecosystem models that are truly useful for ecosystem monitoring and carbon budget evaluation are inevitably required. To extrapolate the results based on ground-observation data in a spatial and a temporal scale, more studies will be required to develop satellite remote sensing and statistical ecosystem models. Using a land-use model and land-ecosystem carbon cycle model, we can predict the fluctuations in carbon balance caused by human activities (i. e. terrestrial carbon management) and climate change in the future. And also, we can conduct the assessment of carbon management potential.

By Oikawa and Ito, a process-based carbon cycle model (Sim-CYCLE) was developed and validated with observational data at many measurement sites. The changes of carbon balances and stocks from present to future condition (after 70 years under twice time of CO2 atmospheric concentration and higher air temperature by 2,10C) was estimated using the Sim-CYCLE model. As shown in Fig.2.5.1 (T. Oikawa, 2002), carbon stocks in soil and vegetation of land-ecosystem will increase from 642.3, 1495.1 GtC at present to 835.1, 1559.0 GtC in the future, respectively.

Fig. 2.5.1. The changes of carbon balances and stocks from present to future condition (after 70 years under twice time of CO2 atmospheric concentration and higher air temperature by 2,1°C) estimate by Sim-CYCLE model. (T. Oikawa, 2002)

Further information

Dixson, R. K., Brown, S.A., Solomon, A. M., Trexler, M. C. and Wisniewski, J., Carbon pools and flux of grobal forest ecosystems. Science 263,185-190 (1994)

IPCC Fourth Assessment Report, 2007: A report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Oikawa, T. Land ecosystem response to global warming (in Japanese), Suuri-Kagaku, 2002, No.470, 78-83.