The conference, entitled Cellulosic Ethanol and 2nd Generation Biofuels, was held over three days in October 2007 and focused on scientific and economic issues beyond those of starch — or sucrose-derived fuel ethanol. Itemized separately, the presentations and panel discussions were [68]

• Development of cellulosic ethanol — perspective from the European Union

— see chapter 5, section 5.2.7

• Commercial development of cellulosic ethanol — steps toward industrial — scale production — see chapters 4 and 5

• Tapping the potential of forest products as a feedstock for cellulosic ethanol

— see chapter 4, section 4.2.6, and chapter 5, section 5.4

• Logistics of switchgrass as a cellulosic feedstock — see chapter 4, section 4.2.2, and chapter 5, section 5.4

• Overcoming resource and transportation constraints for cellulosic ethanol

— see chapter 4, section 4.2, and chapter 5, section 5.4

• Feedstock procurement and logistics for cellulosic ethanol — see chapter 4, section 4.2, and chapter 5, section 5.4

• Advances in pretreatment and cellulosic ethanol production — see chapters 2 and 4

• Enzymes and ethanologen challenges for cellulosic ethanol — see chapter 2, sections 2.5 and 2.6, and chapter 3

• A different approach to developing yeasts for biomass conversion — see chapter 3, sections 3.1, 3.2, and 3.4

• Siting and financing a cellulosic ethanol plant — see chapter 5

• Dealing with legal and policy risks for ethanol and advanced biofuels — see chapter 5, especially section 5.2.2

• Investor perspectives on developing and financing cellulosic ethanol — see chapter 5

From this agenda, it is evident that, unlike starch — and sucrose-derived ethanol indus­tries (very much still in the “boom” phase of development worldwide), cellulosic eth­anol still remains on the fringes even in the developed economy (the United States) with the most overt public support of cellulosic ethanol while investors fret about fiscal uncertainties and technologists scrabble to convince potential manufacturers that the major scientific hurdles have been overcome. In New Zealand, the Genesis Research and Development sold (in early November 2007) BioJoule, its biofuels business that aimed at establishing a lignocellulosic ethanol and biorefinery facility, citing the difficulties in raising capital and grant funding to pursue such an aim.

Other than cellulosic ethanol, other advanced biofuels (with the exception of “biobutanol”) remain in need of serious industrial partners or timelines. The obvi­ous danger to many environmentalists is that the partial vacuum in the supply and demand cycle will inevitably be met by ecologically unstable developments in tropi­cal regions to establish monoculture plantations of “energy crops” to further harden the international trade in “off-the-shelf” biofuels.

In the short term, it can readily be concluded that all the elements needed to establish a cellulosic ethanol industry do now exist — and have existed for a decade (and possibly longer) — and that the biotechnologists could now leave the stage to determined commercial interests to finance, set up, and maintain industrial pro­duction facilities. Casualties are inevitable: some second-generation companies will undoubtedly fail financially, but this will be a part of whatever learning curve the new biobased industry will encounter, and as a safety net, in the United States and other OECD nations, enough government support is likely to remain on offer to smooth the transition as long as crude oil prices are sufficiently high for biofuels to be pump price competitive with gasoline.