China’s demand for oil as a transportation fuel is forecast to increase more than ten­fold between 1990 and 2030 (from 30 to 396 million tonnes), reaching 50% of that of the United States by that date.66 Economic analysis has shown that sweet sorghum and its bagasse as well as rice hulls and corn stover have extensive availability in northern China and could represent attractive feedstocks for bioethanol production.67

Investigations into gasoline supplementation with endogenously produced etha­nol began in 1999, and by 2004, E90 grades were available in eight provinces; a Renewable Energy Law and a National Key R&D Program for cellulosic ethanol were applied to the energy sector during 2005.68 Other primary factors in China’s newly acquired interest in bioethanol include the following: [52]

• Assuming successful implementation of the types of lignocellulosic ethanol technologies on which recent U. S. and European cost models have been based (section 5.2), production cost estimates for Chinese production sites would be in the range of $0.43-0.95/gallon.

Building and operating commercial cellulosic ethanol plants in China thus appears very feasible and would generate exactly the kind of practical experience and knowledge that would induce other nations to invest. The Chinese government has announced the allocation of $5 billion in capital investment in the coming decade for ethanol production capacity with a focus on noncereal feedstocks.68