IEA (2003) estimates that 13.5 per cent of the total 10038Mtoe of primary energy supply in the world came from renewable sources in 2001. As much as 79.6 per cent came from fossil fuels, and 6.9 per cent came from nuclear power. Over the last thirty years, the average increase in the utilization of renewables went hand in hand with the increase in energy supply, or around 2 per cent per year (IEA, 2002). Unfortunately, this implies a faster absolute increase in the use of fossil fuels. In fact, the absolute use of fossil fuels increased Five times more than the use of renewables in the last three decades.

Since 1990, the primary energy supply in the world grew by 1.4 per cent per year while the growth of renewables was 1.7 per cent per year, indicating not only a slower increase in the use of energy but also a slightly more rapid increase in the use of renewables when compared with other sources. Nevertheless, fossil fuel utilization is still increasing faster in absolute terms as renewable sources are still at low levels. Thus much remains to be done in order to shift world energy systems towards sustainable solutions.

Figure 1.1 illustrates the shares of various renewables in the world energy supply. New renewables such as solar, wind and tide comprise a very small fraction, corresponding to less than 0.1 per cent of the total energy supply of the world and only 0.5 per cent of the renewables. Biomass is by far the most significant renewable source, representing 10.4 per cent of the world total. It is worth pointing out

Liquid biomass

0.7%

Renewable

Gas from

Figure 1.1. World renewable energy supply by source, 2001. Source: IEA (2003).

that while 87 per cent of the biomass resources are used in developing countries, 86 per cent of the new renewables are found in OECD countries (IEA, 2002). In any case, given the small amounts of the latter, developing countries are, in fact, much larger users of renewables than industrialized nations. In addition, it is important to remember that, though making a relatively small contribution to the world’s total supply, renewables allow energy to arrive at remote and isolated locations, thus often making a crucial contribution.

Biomass is mostly used in solid form and, to a lesser extent, also in the form of liquid fuels, renewable municipal solid waste and gas. However, recent trends show a faster increase in the use of liquid biomass and municipal waste than solid biomass. In fact, when compared with other renewables, solid biomass showed the slowest growth since 1990. While solar and wind energy supply grew by 19 per cent, solid biomass grew by only 1.5 per cent per year during the 1990s. On the other hand, non­solid biomass and waste such as municipal solid waste, biogas and liquid biomass grew by 7.6 per cent per year. Thus some opportunities are being sized particularly as a result of efforts to find new alternatives to fossil fuels in the transport sector and in waste management. Nevertheless, considering the resource base that is readily available and the great potential to grow biomass, there is much more that can be done to enhance the role of bioenergy.

In the so-called rich and green scenario developed by IIASA/WEC, biomass could account for 20 per cent of the total amount of the world energy in 2100 (Nakicenovic et al., 1998). Obviously, this will not happen by itself, and the slow growth of solid biomass provides an illustration of that. This scenario includes significant technological progress and strong international cooperation around environmental protection and equity issues. It is also important to point out that biomass utilization in the IIASA/WEC scenario differs from the present conditions especially when it comes to technology. In particular, significant changes in the way
biomass is being utilized in many developing countries today will have to be accomplished. We are basically talking about going from traditional to modern and efficient technologies that can provide high-quality energy services, many of which require access to electricity.

There are significant regional differences when it comes to the availability and use of biomass resources in the world (see Figure 1.2). In many regions of developing countries, biomass is the only accessible and affordable source of energy. In Africa, for example, biomass corresponds to half of the total energy supply. Most of the biomass used in the continent is being harvested informally and only a small part is commercialized, with biomass markets usually operating in urban areas only. In many parts of Asia and Latin America, on the other hand, modern and commercial bioenergy options are readily available and significant. The Brazilian ethanol programme is noteworthy as the single most important accomplishment in providing an alternative fuel to the transport sector.

In addition to woodfuels, other biomass fuels such as forest and crop residues as well as animal waste are common sources of bioenergy in poor countries, where also traditional technologies predominate. Besides the amount of biomass that is readily available in the form of residues, and the potential for improved efficiency in technologies being presently applied, many countries still have land available for energy plantations. Integrating biomass harvesting for energy purposes with forestry and agricultural activities is another option. In many regions, the use of biomass still needs to become sustainable, this being true both where traditional and modern technologies are applied.

Non-OECD

Former Europe M|ddte

— 0.1%

OECD

China

20

Africa 23.9%

Asia*

Latin

America

‘Asia excludes China

Figure 1.2. Regional shares of bioenergy supply. Source: IEA (2003).

Figure 1.2 shows how the utilization of biomass is distributed across the globe. What it does not say, however, is how large the actual potential for harvesting biomass resources is in the various regions. In fact, the most promis­ing areas are found in the tropical regions. The best average yields per hectare have been observed in sugarcane plantations in Zambia which have reached 1350GJ/ha/year (global average 650 GJ/ha/year), followed by best-performing eucalyptus plantations in Brazil with 1000 GJ/ha/year (Brazilian average 450 GJ/ha/year). For comparison we can mention that registered US record yields for maize are slightly over 400 GJ/ha/year while the average is about half, and the high estimates from American commercial forests are less than 100 GJ/ha/year (IPCC/SAR, 2001).

A large part of the biomass in developing countries is used in households for cooking and heating. But biomass is also an important energy source in many industries, for example, in the production of ceramics and beverages, and in drying and processing food. These same industries provide an important demand base and starting point for realizing bioenergy projects in developing countries, not least integrated with other established commercial activities. These opportunities are often forgotten for reasons such as lack of knowledge of how to develop bio­energy systems, nonexistence of supporting policies, lack of managerial capacity and conventional energy planning practices.

Only 13 per cent of the total biomass is consumed in the OECD countries, where it accounts for some 3 per cent of the energy supply. In fact, renewables as a whole correspond to only 5.7 per cent of the total primary energy supply in OECD countries, of which about half is being used to generate electricity. The use of solid biomass has had a positive development in OECD countries, showing an annual increase of 1.8 per cent since 1990 as opposed to 1.5 per cent in non-OECD countries. As previously observed, the segments utilizing municipal solid waste and producing liquid biomass are the ones growing faster. While wind and solar energy have reached growth rates higher than 20 per cent per year, liquid biomass has grown at an annual rate of 84 per cent in the OECD. Certainly, all these large growth rates have to be considered with caution as the starting points for renew­ables have been quite low.

It is also worth noticing that, although the electricity demand is growing by more than 2 per cent per year in OECD countries, the electricity generation from renewables has only grown by 0.8 per cent per year since 1990. The participation of renewables in the total supply of electricity has decreased in absolute terms in many regions of the OECD since the late 1990s, for example in North America, particularly in the US. The European Union, on the other hand, has had a con­tinuous growth since 1990, thanks to supportive policies, not least those related to urban waste handling.

Biomass only corresponds to 1 per cent of the world electricity generation. More specifically, electricity generation from solid biomass has shown an average increase of 2.7 per cent per year and some 20 TWh have been added to the supply base of OECD countries since 1990, denoting a slight increase in the share of biomass for electricity generation in OECD countries. In fact, renewable municipal waste and biogas are becoming increasingly important in OECD countries. Though both are still at an initial stage, we should expect significant growth in these segments in the years to come. Heat production from biomass has also increased substantially, both in heat plants only and in CHPs, but available data series do not allow further inference.

Biomass currently supplies 3.5 per cent of the energy in the EU, which is equivalent to 45 million toe. However, the interest for bioenergy has increased rapidly both among members and candidate countries. Some EU countries have had outstanding performance in their national biomass programs, for example, the Netherlands, United Kingdom and Denmark, all of which started from very low levels in the early 1990s. Also countries previously outside the EU such as the Czech Republic and Hungary have been investing in bioenergy (IEA, 2003).

In the past few years, the EU has developed common guidelines and energy directives, which are expected to have a significant impact in the coming years, not least on bioenergy use (see also Bauen, Chapter 2). Provided the efforts being made to promote bioenergy succeed, the amount could increase from 45 to 130 million toe in the region by 2010-15. Bioenergy provides a great opportunity to address problems other than energy in the EU, such as decreasing populations in rural areas, employment in peripheral regions, and restructuring of agricultural policies including new uses for idle croplands and reduction of subsidies. A recent Europe­wide study indicates that as many as 900 000 jobs could be created by 2020 from investments in renewables of which 500000 are in agriculture to produce biofuels (ALTENER, 2001).

In developing countries, electricity generation from renewables has grown by some 3 per cent since 1990, following a parallel track with the increase in electricity demand in these countries at large. Thus the growth of renewables in electricity generation is larger in developing countries than in OECD countries. Certainly, most additions in the developing world come from hydropower, and only few countries are exploring other renewable sources systematically. Indeed, hydropower remains a major renewable option where potential is available. The conventional view favoring centralized energy generation may lead to large-scale projects, heavy financial burden on poor economies and negative environmental impacts. Yet many developing countries do have programs for small hydroplants.

Thus the truth about renewables is that there is a positive trend which may look impressive in relative terms but which is slow in absolute terms. This means that non-renewables not only remain very strong but are still mainstream. When it comes to biomass, the development has been slow in comparison with the new renewables. It can certainly be accelerated, bringing ancillary advantages to many countries, for example, rural development. To facilitate this process, there is a need for models that allow an effective and rapid assessment of local biomass potentials, while also providing guidelines to support project design and implementation. Certainly, there is no reason for allowing a very rapid move towards fossil fuels in developing countries where a significant untapped biomass potential exits. Reversing that trend is a major global challenge, and the introduction of bioenergy options definitely provides part of the solution.