The International Energy Agency predicts that the world’s energy consumption will increase by 1.7% per annum (IEA, 2005a). If this is applied to the UK’s transport fuel, the UK would require 63,000,000 t of liquid fuels by 2010 and 67,402,000 t by 2020. However, a recent report forecast that the total use of fuel in the EU 25 (JRC, 2007) will increase up to 2010 and then slowly decline (Fig. 8.24).

Diesel for cars will steadily increase due to their better fuel consumption and emis­sions while petrol use will decline. The only group which appears to increase over the time period is the diesel demand by heavy goods vehicle (HGV) transport which is a feature of economic growth within the EU. The increase in fuel use from 2005 to 2020

Fig. 8.24. Present and future use of road fuels in the EU 25. (Redrawn from JRC, 2007.)

represents an increase of 0.69%, much less than predicted, from global energy use but much of the global growth is probably from developing nations.

The major biofuel produced in Europe is biodiesel and in 2005 Europe consumed

178.178.0 t of fossil fuel diesel. The European production of biodiesel is given in Fig. 8.25 where Germany is by far the largest producer, although the UK’s production has recently increased significantly. The total biodiesel produced in Europe was 6,069,000 t which was considerable, but still only represents 2.45% of the total diesel used.

UK biofuels supply

The UK needs to provide a secure supply of fuel at a time when the UK is increasingly dependent on imports for energy production. At present the UK imports 5% of its gas and 34% of its oil. However, this is changing as the UK continental shelf oil and gas production will reduce over the next 25 years.

The current figure for the use of liquid fossil fuels in the UK (2005 figures) is

58.818.0 t (Table 6.1) principally made up of petrol 19,918,000 t, diesel 23,989,000 t and kerosene for aviation 10,765,000 t.

In a recent report the Biofuels Research Advisory Council (Biofuels in the Euro­pean Union, a vision for 2030 and beyond, 2006), the average annual growth for primary energy was predicted to be 0.6% for the UK, which matches the EU 25 pre­diction. This would include an increase in energy imports from 47.1% in 2000 to 67.5% in 2030. The largest increase will be in fuel for heavy transport.

It is not an impossible task for the UK, to provide 5% of the total diesel used as biodiesel as this would require 6.6% (1.1 Mha) of the total agricultural land set down to rapeseed (Fig. 8.26). In addition, there are 50-90 million l of used cooking oil which could provide 0.24-0.44% of the total diesel. Other estimates indicate that 1.15 Mha of agricultural land would be required to meet the 5% obligation (Rowe et al., 2009).

In the UK, it is rapeseed that dominates the oilseed production, and Fig. 8.26 shows the land required to produce 5, 20 and 100% of the UK’s diesel from rapeseed. It is clear that beyond a 5% substitution, biodiesel from rapeseed will require a sig­nificant amount of agricultural land which will impact on food crops. Therefore, other sources of biodiesel will be needed and Fig. 8.26 also shows the land required for two alternative sources of diesel, FT diesel and microalgae.

Ethanol can be produced in the UK from sugar extracted from sugarbeet, starch extracted from wheat and cellulose from lignocellulose material. The yields of ethanol per hectare from sugar, starch and lignocellulose crops vary depending on the crop as can be seen in Fig. 8.27. Crop yields also depend on the crop cultivation and climate conditions. The average values are between 2000-3000 l/ha for sugarbeet but the temperate crops cannot compete with sugarcane at 6000 l/ha and sorghum at 4000 l/ha. However, as these crops cannot be grown in the UK, wheat and sugarbeet have to be used. The amount of land for ethanol production at 5, 20 and 100% substitu­tion is shown in Fig. 8.28. Ethanol production from sugarbeet would require 50-60% of the agricultural land for 100% replacement, wheat 54-298% agricultural land and lignocellulose 42-81% agricultural land.