In 2001 a number of directives were produced to encourage renewable energy sources. Directive 2001/77/EC set a target for each member state for the proportion of electricity produced from sustainable resources and later the ten new members also

Fig. 3.4. Global, Annex 1 and Kyoto target carbon dioxide emissions now and predicted in Gt. (From IEA, 2005a.)

set up national targets. Directive 2003/30/EC covered the promotion of biofuels for transport, and member states are permitted to reduce excise duties on biofuels (Directive 2003/96/EC).

Under what is considered an optimistic view, Table 3.2 shows the possible share of alternative fuels in the EU by 2020 (Demirbas, 2008). In this case, natural gas use increases until 2030-2040, after which it declines. Biofuels show a steady increase up to 2050, and over this time period hydrogen overtakes biofuels and replaces natural gas.