The Derived Demand for Land

A puzzle for many who develop pro-formas for cellulosic crop to chemical systems is what amount to budget for land. This puzzle arises from the endogeneity of land rent in the supply and demand functions of crops. In other words, when demand for a new crop is introduced to an existing equilibrium in agricultural crop markets, the use of land to produce that crop reduces the supply of land available to other crops. Reduced supply of an input reduces the supply of those crops. The new equilibrium price for those crops is higher as reduced supply interacts with constant demand. With higher crop prices and all else held constant, farmers bid up the demand for land. Land rents increase and if land rents are sustained at a higher level, the sale price of agricultural land rises. Developers of new crop-to-chemical systems should anticipate paying at least current land rents to start and perhaps higher land rents to sustain supply through time.