The predicted development of CSP applications follows on after 20 years of the development of the Aeolian applications; a possible trend could be the world achiev­ing 5000 MW by 2015. The overall ‘portfolio’ of the CSP systems planned at different levels in the world accounts for about 1562 MW; adding to it both the predicted 28 MW coming from the Italian Archimedes Project (described in par. 4.5.3) and the portfolio of the Global Environment Facility (GEF, an independent financial orga­nization connected with the World Bank and also with the Environment Project of the United Nations; it was founded in 1991 to help developing countries with proj­ects and programmes aimed at protecting the world environment) projects which are currently foreseen will add another 130 MWe, which results in a potential world portfolio for the short to medium term of over 1700 MW.

Of this 1700 MW, 300 MW is considered to be surely realized.

The factors which have resulted in a reduction of the levelled electrical energy costs produced by these systems, valued by the GEF, are shown in Fig. 83; it has been forecast that the levelled energy cost (LEC) will be reduced from the current 16 c$/kW h to about 6 c$/kW h by the year 2025, also reaching by that date the predicted cost for the fossil fuel systems. Other organizations have predicted even lower costs (till 3.5 c$/kW h).

The fulfilment of these developmental forecasts will mostly depend on the polit­ical and economic situation in the next few years. However, it is clear that the knowledge and diffusion of CSP technology is currently at the same stage as that of the Aeolian ones during the mid-1980s; at that time, nobody would have bet on the Aeolian energy; instead, we have currently reached only in Europe an installed Aeolian power of 34,000 MW [45, 49].