Jatropha, cellulosic ethanol, and animal waste all have fantastic potential as bio­fuels. Refined into kerosene, these fuels emit about half as much carbon dioxide as emissions from petroleum fuels.

Personally, I think there are three problems:

1. The airlines cannot afford to pay for their extra emissions. This will be passed on to us — the consumer. Otherwise, their profitability will take a nose-dive.

2. There is not enough feedstock available to produce all these biofuels.

3. In weak economies passengers cannot afford an extra carbon credit charge. In the near future the breakdown of an airline ticket will look like this:

Total annual jet fuel use and planned World consumption of plant oils compared to

alternative use percentage feedstock needed to reach 10% target [m tons]

Palm oil Soybean Canola oil oil

Figure 17.1 Jatropha’s bio jet fuel potential: Jatropha-based jet fuel could create a new market of a similar size as other vegetable oils (up to 30 million tonnes per year}. Source: GEXSI Presentation at World Biofuel Markets 2010.

Among the top airlines, British Airways, United, and Delta will all have exposures in excess of 3 million tonnes of carbon dioxide, and face offset payments of more than $50 million each. Biofuels offers a way of escaping the payments and airlines are nervously watching the oil price ticker.

Figure 17.1 (left) shows the total annual jet fuel use and planned alternative use percentage (28 million tonnes), and Figure 17.1 (right) shows 28 million tonnes of the bio jet fuel market compared to other oils. The annual kerosene consumption is 225 million tonnes. Figure 17.2 shows the International Air Transport Asso­ciation (IATA)’s goals for 50% biofuels by 2040.

On 9 June 2011, the Aviation Initiative for Renewable Energy in Germany (AIREG; www. aireg. de) was initiated whereby 20 stakeholders ranging from air­lines to biokerosene producers and research institutions got together to promote biofuels for airlines. Starting 2020, the members want to grow in a carbon dioxide — neutral fashion and halve the carbon dioxide emissions by 2050, compared to the benchmark year 2005. In the future, AIREG wants to attract members outside Germany. The aviation industry is also now starting to feel the competition for biomass from the car industry and real-estate side.

17.4