Airplanes of the future will be powered by anything from waste, vegetable oils to algae to animal or vegetable fat. Contrary to electric cars, we will not see airplanes running on electric engines — a 300-tonne airplane will simply not fly on electricity and a battery that provides electricity for 5000 miles has not yet been invented! Airplanes need liquid fuels where the kerosene is burned in a combustion engine and this liquid green fuel needs to have a very high energy content.

The alternative jet fuel sector right now is a competitive one with various technologies under development, and even with an economic slowdown and lower oil prices, airlines, engine makers, chemical companies, and governments are working quickly to address supply needs.

Fuel became the largest component of operating costs for US airlines in 2006, part of a relentless price spiral in energy prices that challenged the profitability of the industry. In addition to volatile oil prices, caps on carbon emissions, intro­duced in January 2012, have also prompted the sector to invest hundreds of millions of dollars into developing a more secure and affordable energy source.

That said, price competitiveness remains a key criteria. Alternative fuels will work if they are:

• Available in very, very large quantities.

• Priced equal to or below what airlines are paying today for fossil fuel kerosene.

As the availability of biofuels increases, the economies of scale will reduce prices: the more biomass becomes available, the lower the price and the more competitive kerosene will become.

As the aviation community develops alternatives, the idea is to alter the fuel, not the aircraft. If you look at aircraft, they are in essence long-life assets — they can be around for 15-30 years. If you can have a product that is in essence a drop-in fuel, you obtain the benefit very rapidly. Ultimately, as we have seen in previous chapters, geography will play an important factor in what plants are grown to create fuel. Camelina, a rotation crop in the northern United States and Australia,

Second Generation Biofuels and Biomass: Essential Guide for Investors, Scientists and Decision Makers, First Edition. Roland A. Jansen. r 2013 Wiley-VCH Verlag GmbH & Co. KGaA.

Published 2013 by Wiley-VCH Verlag GmbH & Co. KGaA.

is complimentary to wheat farming and a likely contender for US aviation. Similarly, Jatropha, a shrub that grows well in heat, will likely be cultivated in China, India, Brazil, or Africa. Sugarcane is also ideal in Brazil. Long-term, bio­fuels will come from hallophytes (plants that grow in salty conditions), algae (which appears to deliver high oil yields), or animal fat.

Unless there is demand for a feedstock, farmers will not plant it. Also, when other grains are highly priced, farmers will prefer to grow those grains and not biofuels. A good example is Camelina: wheat prices are high, so farmers grow wheat in Montana instead of Camelina.

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