Some statistics:

• Mother Earth has around 800 million cars and 7 billion people.

• Every year we add 50 million cars and 80 million people.

• New car sales in China in 2010: 18 million cars!

• Car diesel consumption share: United States, 5%; Europe, 50%; India, 80%. Thus, diesel consumption in the United States is still very small, but the potential is enormous.

Energy demand is not so much population-driven, but it is income growth — driven. Here are the demographics and income growth forecasts:

• India is now forecast to surpass China in total population by 2030, 5 years earlier than previously thought.

• India’s population is forecast to rise by almost 350 million over the next quarter century, twice as fast as the United States, Western Europe, and China combined.

• While China’s population is currently larger than India’s by over 200 million, by 2050 India’s population is expected to exceed China’s by 200 million.

• India’s urban population is projected to rise from 29% of total population in 2005 to 41% by 2030.

• More critical for economic growth, however, is the rate of growth in the labor force. This is best estimated by projecting growth in the “working-age” popula­tion (age 15-60). Here, India’s advantages are amplified. The growth in India’s working-age population is expected to exceed its already rapid population growth until 2015. While China’s working-age population declines from 2020 to 2050, India’s increases until at least 2045. Reversals of fortune! China’s current working-age population dwarfs India’s by 230 million; however, by 2050 India’s working age population will exceed China’s by the same amount.

3.3.6