Expansion of the Ethanol Program to Other Countries

To emulate the successful Ethanol Program of Brazil, which is clearly an instrument to reduce CO2 emissions from gasoline, a number of countries have adopted ethanol mandates to introduce ethanol in their automotive fleets. As a consequence, it is necessary to subsidize producers at a rate of approximately 11 billion dollars per year mainly in the United States where ethanol is produced from corn.

Table 1 shows the existing mandates in a number of countries and projections of the amount of ethanol that will be needed by 2020/2022.

Present gasoline consumption in these countries is 943.2 billion liters, 82% of present gasoline consumption.

The potential demand for 2020/2022 on the basis of existing mandates [7] is

178.7 billion liters.

Clearly, an enormous effort will have to be made to meet the projected demand for 2020 in the basis of either first — or second-generation technologies.

Table 1 Present production and potential demand for ethanol

Country/region

Present gasoline consumptiona 2007 (billion liters per year)

Present ethanol productionb 2008 (billion liters per year)

Potential demand resulting from present mandates up to 2020/2022 per year

US

530

34

136

European Union

148

2.3

8.51

China

54

1.9

5.4

Japan

60

0.1

1.8

Canada

39

0.9

1.95

United Kingdom

26

0.03

1.3

Australia

20

0.075

2.0

Brazil

25.2

27

19.6

South Africa

11.3

0.12

0.9

India

13.6

0.3

0.68

Thailand

7.2

0.3

0.7

Argentina

5.0

0.2

0.25

The Philippines

5.1

0.08

0.26

Total

943.2

67.3

178.7

aSource: From [11] bSource: From [7]

2 Summary

A discussion is made of the policies adopted by the Brazilian government in the mid 1970s of last century to increase the production of ethanol from sugarcane. The suc­cess of such policies can be assessed by the enormous increase in production (from

0. 6 billion liter in 1975/1978 to 27.6 billion in 2009/2010) as well as the sharp decline in production costs which turned this renewable fuel competitive with gasoline.