According to a recent industry study, $350 billion is needed for petroleum imports over the 2010-2022 period. By investing this money in biofuels, less fossil fuels will release fewer harmful emissions toxins and the United States will have cleaner air to breathe, and, according to that same industry study, the investments will

create up to 1 million new jobs. Another positive sign is that after 2022 I think around 3 million barrels of new oil from hard rock produced in North Dakota and South Texas will come on stream, thus reducing American oil imports.

11.4

14.3.1 Ghana

An estimated 18 million tonnes of woodfuel is produced every year in Ghana from natural forests while the climatic and soil conditions are suitable for large-scale cultivation agriforestry. In addition to the woody biomass potential of Ghana, the country generates huge volumes of crop and animal residue that could be converted into pellets or electrical and heat energy. Apart from traditional uses of biomass, the modern bioenergy potential of Ghana remains largely unutilized.

14.3.2 Ethiopia

Ethiopia is a country of 86 million people and I think that Addis Ababa will become the capital of Africa. Here resides the African Union, comparable to the European Union. Addis Ababa also has the largest public market in Africa called Mercator. This is like a city within a city. Ethiopians are largely employed in agriculture (41% of the gross domestic product). Ethiopia is one of the poorest countries in Africa, but the economy is growing rapidly at 11% per year.

The energy balance in Ethiopia is dominated by biomass energy. Eighty-eight percent of the country’s energy supply comes from biomass fuels (wood, charcoal, and agricultural residues). The government stimulates the cultivation of sugarcane

plantations and recently ethanol has started to be used as a gasoline in Addis Ababa. The main use of biomass energy is for cooking in residential and com­mercial establishments. Demand for biomass fuels is growing as rapidly as food production.

Fossil fuels provide only 9.5% of the total final energy supply, and are consumed in the transport, industry, and residential sectors. Ethiopia does not produce fossil fuels and imports all its requirements through a government agency.

All in all, Ethiopia is ideal for cultivating Jatropha or sugarcane. However, land ownership is not possible and this hampers large investments in biofuels. Ethiopia has a diverse range of renewable resources and a great potential market in its large population with growing incomes. Despite a rise in the adoption of renewable energies, only a small fraction of the potential is realized.

14.3.3

Nigeria

Like Ghana, Nigeria has large natural palm forests. Next to producing palm oil, these two countries have started to export palm kernel shells to European utility buyers, who blend the shells with coal in their boilers to reduce carbon dioxide, sulfur, and nitrogen emissions. Shipping routes from West Africa to Amsterdam, Rotterdam, and Antwerp (ARA) are shorter than the Asian (ASA) routes, so the logistical costs are lower with African biomass.

2.9.1

Rudolf Diesel

Rudolf Christian Karl Diesel was born in 1858. He died under strange circum­stances on a ship and he was last seen alive in 1913. He was a German inventor and

original designs. They are “heavy-duty” machines with a robust construction, and are used in submarines, ships, locomotives, passenger cars, large trucks, and in power plants generating electricity.

He gathered practical engineering experience at the Sulzer Brothers Machine Works in Winterthur, Switzerland. His life was full of big bangs and explosions because not all his experiments were a success. He first toyed with steam and his research into fuel efficiency induced him to build a steam engine using ammonia vapor. During tests, this machine exploded with almost fatal consequences. Rudolf Diesel had to stay in hospital for many months and he never recovered completely.

Ever since then he suffered from ill health and eyesight problems.

Soon after Gottlieb Daimler and Karl Benz had invented the motor car in 1887, Diesel published a paper entitled “Theory and construction of a rational heat — engine to replace the steam engine and combustion engines known today”. This study formed the basis for his invention of the diesel engine. Rudolf Diesel was almost killed by his engine when it exploded. However, his engine was the first that proved that fuel could be ignited without a spark. He operated his first suc­cessful engine in 1897.

His work in engine design was driven by the goal to generate much energy and increase the efficiency of the engine. Eventually he obtained a patent for his design. His engine and its successors are now known as “diesel” engines.

Diesel was interested in using vegetable oil as fuel and his first engine, in fact, ran on peanut oil at the World Exhibition in Paris in 1900, much to the aston­ishment of scientists and engineers. This was the first biofuel ever. Even then he could see the advantages in agriculture and for the environment. However, he died before his vision of vegetable oil-powered engines became a reality.

2.9.2

Energy biofuels are faced with heavy criticism because the first-generation bio­fuels from sugar, corn, and soybeans compete on agricultural land with sugar, corn, and soybeans cultivated for biofuels. This is the essence of the “fuel-or-food” debate.

Jatropha is a sustainable alternative to first-generation biofuels, because you cannot eat Jatropha. The international Jatropha Alliance (www. jatropha-alliance. org) wants to stop the general demonization of biofuels, and is demanding a more differentiated discussion from politicians and non-governmental organizations (NGOs).

Sustainable production of biofuels means that today’s social, ecological, and economic needs have to be met without wasting the resources of future generations. Jatropha projects have the potential to fulfill this demand as they promise social, ecological, and economic returns. The cultivation of Jatropha provides economic means for local communities to develop local economies.

With proper care, Jatropha grows abundantly on marginal, unused lands. Worldwide, millions of hectares of relatively poor soil can be (re-)used to cultivate Jatropha, so that the issues of land competition and endangering natural habitats do not arise. In addition, as a non-edible crop Jatropha has no effect on food prices. Therefore, Jatropha is one way out of the food versus fuel debate. Although this is well known, many politicians and NGOs keep criticizing biofuels, thus also put­ting Jatropha projects at risk.

Climate change is the main challenge of our time. Jatropha contributes to reducing carbon dioxide emissions. In particular, the airline industry is very interested in using Jatropha-based jet fuel to improve their carbon footprint.

In order to realize its full potential, 1 million hectares of Jatropha has to be planted every year. The Jatropha industry is ready to prove the promising advan­tages of Jatropha. However, in times of economic crisis investors are reluctant to fund Jatropha projects, despite the high demand for Jatropha oil.

Jatropha is not a wonder crop, but it has significant advantages that need to be developed further. Thilo Zelt is president of the Jatropha Alliance, and founded

GEXSI and Green Power Ltd. The Jatropha Alliance now represents the majority of important companies in the sector. Its aim is to promote the development of sustainable biofuels, feedstocks, and the build-up of the Jatropha industry.

3.3.4

In short, Camdina has become a crop of interest inspired by its high oil composition of approximately 35-45% m-3 fatty acids. It is cold weather-tolerant, well adapted to dry conditions and has a relatively short 85- to 100-day growing season. Camdina yields an average 210-255 kg per hectare and the protein and fiber content in its meal byproduct is comparable with soybean meal, in the range 45-47% crude protein and 10-11% fiber. In addition, because it has lower fertilizer, pesticide, and water requirements, its production cost is substantially lower than other oilseeds, posi­tioning it as an attractive potential crop for biodiesel production.

The unique properties of Camdina oil could lead to the development of a wide array of high-value markets for the oil and its components in foods, feeds, cosmetics, and industrial products (biolubricants). Some ideas currently being researched include:

• Nutritional. Camdina is not toxic like Jatropha and Camdina oil can be used to increase the nutritional value of a range of baked foods, such as bread, and spreads, including peanut butter.

• Health. Potential health benefits of m-3 from Camelina oil are being evaluated in a breast cancer risk study (http://biozio. blogspot. com/2009_07_01_archive. html and http://www. altconsulting. org/pdf/bio-diesel-feasibility. pdf) for over­weight or obese postmenopausal women.

• Biodiesel. Camelina biodiesel has been produced and evaluated by commercial biodiesel manufacturers, including Core IV, Wyoming Biodiesel, Peaks and Prairies, and Great Northern Growers. Camelina biodiesel performance appears to be equal in value and indistinguishable from biodiesel produced from other oilseed crops such as soybean.

• Biolubricant. Camelina oil can be converted to a wax ester that will replace more expensive and less available Jojoba waxes in a range of industrial and cosmetic products.

• Biokerosene. Camelina, which can be grown on millions of acres of idle cropland, can produce renewable jet fuel that is cost-competitive without subsidies.

A cultivar is a cultivated variety of a plant that has been deliberately selected for specific desirable characteristics. When propagated correctly, the plants of a par­ticular cultivar retain their special characteristics. Yields of Camelina cultivars have been averaging about 1100-1200 kg per hectare over many years of trials. It should be noted that the yield of many of these oilseeds has been improved significantly through plant breeding and improved agronomic practices, whereas Camelina has largely not had the benefit of plant breeding.

In the United States, crops are sown with standard farm machinery on large plots. Camelina can be harvested mechanically as well — contrary to Jatropha.

Biofuels market researchers project that 1 billion gallons of Camelina biofuel would be produced for the aviation and biodiesel sectors by 2025, creating 25 000 new jobs — producing over $5.5 billion in new revenues and $3.5 billion in new agricultural income for US and Canadian farmers. The projections are contained in "Camelina: aviation biofuels market opportunity and renewable energy strategy report” (www. cleanenergysector. com).

An acre of Camelina produces 450-900 kg of seeds and 65-100 gallons of oil.

The prolific crop requires just 1.5-2.25 kg of those seeds to be replanted. The Camelina seeds remaining after the crushing process can then be used as animal feedstock and organic matter for biomass facilities ("FDA approves Camelina meal for cattle feed;” www. allaboutfeed. net).

Japan Airlines has completed a 90-min flight powered by fuel with a 50% Camelina blend. Although several carriers, including Virgin Atlantic Airways, Air New Zealand, and Continental Airlines, have demonstrated that biokerosene can be used in jet fuel, this journey was the first commercial flight to use Camelina oil — a relatively new next-generation biofuel feedstock that is being grown in the Great Plains and Midwest regions of the United States.

Japan Airlines is part of an airline industry consortium to require its members to use biofuels produced from non-food sources and with minimal environmental impact. The Sustainable Aviation Fuel Users Group (SAFUG; www. safug. org) also includes Boeing (NYSE: BA) and Honeywell (NYSE: HON) subsidiary UOP, as well as the commercial airlines that account for 15% of commercial jet fuel use:

Air France, Air New Zealand, All Nippon Airways, Cargolux, Gulf Air, Japan Airlines, KLM, SAS, and Virgin Atlantic Airways.

The group’s intent amounts to an endorsement of the progress being made by second-generation biofuel developers. Specifications for jet fuels are extremely stringent because the industry is more risk-averse than other transportation methods.

4.4.6

Imagine an apricot with a nut inside. The same principle exists with palm. The palm oil plant produces an edible fruit with a nut inside. During a steaming treatment the fruit’s flesh is melted and the residual nuts are further mechanically crushed to extract the seeds or kernels. The shells of these kernels are called palm kernel shells — a virgin biomass with a calorific value which varies between 15 and 17 GJ per tonne.

Palm kernel shells can be considered like a natural pellet and do not have to be compressed like a woodpellet. Palm kernel shells has a very low sulfur, ash, and nitrogen content. They are therefore a high-grade solid renewable fuel for burning, ideal in cofiring with steam coal or burned in stand-alone biomass power plants, usually blended with other grades of biomass, like woodchips.

The big palm oil plantation companies in Malaysia and Indonesia use more and more palm kernel shells themselves to generate cheap heat and electricity. Therefore it is more and more difficult to buy substantial regular quantities for export.

8.4.4

12.10.1

2007

China has 57 million hectares of marginal lands, of which 15% could be used to cultivate energy crops and plantations (www. cmes. kib. ac. cn).

• As part of the 11th 5-Year Plan, China’s State Forestry Administration signed an agreement in 2007 with the oil company PetroChina to develop jointly two J. curcas plantation bases in Yunnan and Sichuan provinces, with biofuel production capacities of 10 000-30 000 tonnes each and a combined area of more than 200 000 hectares.

• On 6 April 2007 they signed a similar agreement with China National Cereals, Oils and Foodstuffs Corporation (COFCO), China’s largest oils and food importer and exporter, and a leading food manufacturer, ambitious to be a leading participant in J. curcas energy forest production. COFCO would invest in energy forest as a demonstration project to produce at least 20 000 tonnes per year of liquid biofuel in Guizhou province.

• CNOOC invested 2.3 billion Yuan to develop 33 000 hectares of J. curcas forest in Panzhihua, Sichuan province.

• Yunan Shengyu New Energy Company plans to develop J. curcas forest on more than 150 000 hectares in Yunnan province. The project started in 2007 with a total investment of 90 million Yuan. As a first step, Shengyu established 20 000 hectares of energy forests and the construction of a millwork plant.

After 5 years of growing time we can expect that the first big world crop of crude Jatropha oil will come from these plantations in 2014.

12.10.2

Jatropha was one of the components of the 50/50 blend tested by airlines. As a fuel it works very well. However, to prove sustainability and secure much-prized accred­itation, growers need to be diligent — agriculturally, commercially, and socially.

The aviation industry will not buy fuel from a non-accredited source, because nothing less than fully certified fuel will gain exemption from carbon emission charges. To gain

accreditation, biofuel suppliers must show they have measured every aspect of carbon capture from day 1 of planting through to the aircraft’s fuel tanks. Growers must measure the entire carbon custody chain above and below ground, including har­vesting, transporting, and extracting the Jatropha oil, and refining into Bio-SPK.

A Jatropha plantation company should already produce large savings of green­house gas emissions before transport and refining. Over time, Jatropha plantations can absorb 40 tonnes of carbon per hectare annually. That, plus precise auditing and production techniques, is likely to boost savings up to around 88%, higher than IATA’s 80% target. At this level, biofuel is extremely attractive. If the airline uses an 88% certified fuel, it can prove it has cut its carbon dump by that amount and improve its image to its customers substantially.

16.5

The most precious commodity in the world is energy. Most energy comes from fossil fuels like crude oil and coal. When you take inflation into consideration and calculate the real price of oil, today’s brent crude oil price should be well over $140 a barrel.

Estimating proven reserves in the ground is an art that even oil majors have not mastered. In 2004, Royal Dutch Shell had to revise its reserves by 20% downwards. Great Britain has been an oil exporter for the last 25 years and now the country has become an oil importer again because supplies from the North Sea are dwindling. Indonesia, a former OPEC (Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries) member, is also importing oil again and Mexico has the same problem. On the demand side, China is the second largest oil importer in the world today, although most Chinese do not yet have a car. Many Chinese do not even have electricity. When the per capita oil consumption in China rises to the level of Mexico, oil production must increase by 50%. China is the biggest energy consumer in the world and may import a total of 275 million tonnes crude oil in 2012. At the beginning of the new century this import figure was a modest 70 million tonnes.

According to many research reports from international think tanks and oil companies the demand for crude petroleum is forecast to increase by 35-40% by 2030 to around 120 million barrels per day. According to the "Peak Oil” believers, it is estimated that the worldwide conventional oil supply will be depleted within 40-60 years and we are within a few years "before or after” the peak in conven­tional oil reserves.

Most experts project a continuing rise, apart from short-term fluctuations, in the price of oil. They argue that prices of nonrenewable commodities, like crude oil, will rise significantly as the inventory (reserves) of the commodity decrease.

I think we have to deal with several oil scenarios:

1. If the global economy stays subdued in the coming 5 years, I do not believe we will see significant price rises in oil.

2. If the global economy grows steadily in the coming 5 years, I believe oil could move up to $120-140 a barrel.

3. In 5 years time 11 million new barrels of oil from Canada, the United States, and Brazil will come on stream daily, providing an extra supply to the market. Thus, I think in 5 years we will have ample supplies and oil will move down to $50 a barrel.

4. This downward trend will be reinforced by the increased production of second — generation biofuels and biomass coming on stream, replacing oil supplies.

5. Geopolitics play an important role: if for, instance Iran, has developed nuclear weapons and if we face a new war with the Middle East, the oil price can easily double.

Energy use in the transportation sector includes the energy consumed in moving people and goods by road, rail, air, water, and pipeline. The transportation sector is second only to the industrial sector in terms of total end-use energy consumption. Almost 30% of the world’s total delivered energy is used for transportation, most of it in the form of liquid fuels.

The transportation share of world total liquids consumption increases from 53% in 2007 to 61% in 2035 in the US Energy Information Administration (EIA)’s IEO2010 Reference case, accounting for 87% of the total increase in world liquids consumption. Thus, understanding the development of transportation energy use is the most important factor in assessing future trends in the demand for liquid fuels. Figure 1.1 shows that renewables will be the fastest growing energy source.

Another good example is the International Energy Agency (IEA)’s outlook for American electricity generation from renewable sources. In Figure 1.2 we see that the largest share have biomass and wind. All renewable energy sources combined will increase substantially from 140 billion kW/year in 2009 to over 400 billion kW/year in 2035. Also the energy generation from wind and biomass will increase the most and in about the same proportion. According to the IEA’s beliefs the electricity generation from waste, geothermal and solar power will increase a lot less.

1.3

Jatropha is a cross-pollinated crop. This means that the pollen of one plant is transferred to another plant. This is achieved by bees and thus you will see bee­hives at Jatropha plantations. Any genetic improvement is strongly linked to the number of plants per acre or hectare. This is called the "plant population.”

Too many plants per hectare do not necessarily increase yield and profitability. Seed costs and soil fertility are to be considered. An optimal plant population for Jatropha production is one that maximizes both yield and profitability. There is a maximum of plants a plantation can bear. With too many plants per hectare the yield and, therefore, profitability will decrease. So far the optimal plant population for Jatropha has been found to be between 1600 and 2200 trees per hectare. The big challenge for maximum profitability is to concentrate research on the breeding and multiplication of plants that have the following proprieties:

• Resistance against pests.

• Optimal growing rates.

• High oil yields.

• Minimum rainwater use.

On a small scale, in several parts in the world Jatropha plants have been bred with an oil yield of 7 tonnes per hectare — triple the yield of the well-known varieties.

3.1.15