Category Archives: Alternative transportation

Volkswagen Invests in Battery Startup to Increase Edge in Electric Vehicle Market

Volkswagen has purchased a stake in battery development company QuantumScape Corp. to gain an edge over electric vehicle competitors like Tesla Motors Inc. and Nissan Motor Co.

Inside sources, who wished to remain anonymous, told Bloomberg News that Volkswagen purchased a five-percent share in the privately owned company located in San Jose with the option to increase the share. Sources also reported that Volkswagen is seriously contemplating the company’s new technology which would triple the driving range of its electric cars.

According to Bloomberg, QuantumScape is developing batteries that employ solid-state technology using solid electrolytes rather than the liquid electrolytes found in lithium-ion batteries. Benefits of solid state technology include fire resistance and increased energy storage capabilities.

SEE ALSO: Audi Building All-Electric Tesla-Competitive Crossover For US

QuantumScape is a relatively unknown company whose minimal web presence leaves many questions unanswered. There are a few clear facts about the company, however, including its focus on providing “a new future through better energy storage,” which can be found on its website, and its plans to complete viability tests to ensure its technology is feasible for cars in mid-2015, which was reported to Bloomberg by inside sources.

Although Volkswagen is one of the largest automakers in the world, its electric car sales have yet to make a mark in the U.S. The adoption of this new technology may change that, however, which is one reason why Volkswagen’s Chief Executive Officer Martin Winterkorn is so interested in pursuing it.

Winterkorn, who spoke on the new technology at Stanford University in early November, emphasized the importance of electro-chemistry advancements across all geographic locations and industries, but especially for car manufacturers for whom the technology holds a potential solution to one of the largest perceived downsides of electric vehicles — driving range.

“I see great potential in this new technology, possibly boosting the range to as much as 700 kilometers (430 miles),” Winterkorn said in his Nov. 6 speech at Stanford University.

Bloomberg

NCKU in Taiwan unveils hydrogen hybrid scooter

NCKU in Taiwan unveils hydrogen hybrid scooter

7 December 2014

National Cheng Kung University (NCKU) in Taiwan recently unveiled its first hydrogen-fueled electric hybrid scooter “Pegasus One”.

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Overall range of the scooter will be more than 160 km (99 miles), said Dr. Wei-Hsiang Lai, professor of aeronautics and astronautics at NCKU.

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Pegasus One. Click to enlarge.

Pegasus One is upgraded from the original electrical scooter to the current hybrid power system combining fuel cell and lithium battery. The vehicle added a 3-kW Ballard fuel cell and two 300-bar 6.8-liter hydrogen storage cylinders fabricated with carbon fiber reinforced plastics.

Increasing the storage pressure to 700 bar would extend the range to 300 km (186 miles), according to Dr. Lai.

International Truck fuel efficiency package for Class 8 ProStar; 11% better than 2010 baseline

International Truck fuel efficiency package for Class 8 ProStar; 11% better than 2010 baseline

7 December 2014

International Truck today announced a new fuel efficiency package for the International ProStar—the International ProStar ES. The ES, short for efficiency specification, offers improved aerodynamics, a drivetrain with advanced downspeeding and what the company says is the most efficient rear axles in the industry.

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The ProStar ES was developed to have the lowest wind averaged drag coefficient in the industry. The ProStar ES offers the Eaton Cummins SmartAdvantage powertrain which pairs the Cummins ISX15 with the Eaton Fuller Advantage automated transmission, as well as Navistar’s proprietary SCR-based 13-liter engine and the Eaton Fuller Advantage automated transmission. Both are matched with the most efficient rear axles in the industry.

The SmartAdvantage powertrain gives the ProStar ES superior downspeeding capability, allowing it to run at 150-300 fewer RPMs at cruising speed vs. previous offerings. This is part of what enables the ProStar ES to achieve an 11 percent improvement in fuel economy vs. the 2010 ProStar/MaxxForce 13/10-speed manual baseline.

ProStar ES includes a three-year subscription to OnCommand Connection, Navistar’s predictive diagnostic system which includes a portal that monitors vehicle performance in real-time to ensure maximum operating efficiency.

Navistar’s experienced Performance Engineering Team, who developed the ProStar ES, can further optimize customer-specific specifications based on application and duty cycle.

Navistar will begin taking orders for the ProStar ES later this month.

Protected bike lanes also help protect pedestrians… in so many ways

In just about every way you can measure the topic, protected bike lanes have been linked to more and safer bicycling. There’s a logical reason for that: they’re protected from cars.

However, protected bike lanes aren’t only protected from automobile traffic; they’re also separated from sidewalks (at least via paint, if not curbs, bushes, trees, distance, or barriers). Naturally, this protects pedestrians from bicyclists, but in a number of obvious and subtle ways, this also protects pedestrians from cars. In some areas, the improvement is dramatic.

NYC DOT/Public Domain

Regarding the NYC streets noted in the chart above, where protected bike lanes were introduced, Matthew Roe, the former senior safety planning and research manager at the NYC Department of Transportation, says: “There had been about one pedestrian fatality per mile for years on those streets. We saw huge, huge reductions.”

In that Streetsblog article, Michael Andersen of PeopleForBikes listed four reasons why protected bike lanes help protect pedestrians. Before sharing those, I’m going to run through some ideas from my own head as well.

Paul Krueger/CC BY 2.0

The most obvious point, I think, is that bicyclists and pedestrians no longer share a piece of (often narrow) infrastructure. Mixing relatively fast-moving bicyclists with pedestrians is somewhat like mixing fast-driving cars and slow-driving cars. Speeding is the more common and bigger traffic safety issue, but drivers can also get a ticket for driving too slowly, because the unexpected variation in speed is what causes a lot of the risk. At slower speeds, bicyclists aren’t nearly as dangerous as cars, of course, but the general safety issue is the same. If you don’t force bicyclists and pedestrians onto the same infrastructure, bicycle–pedestrian collisions are reduced. (Of course, bicycle–pedestrian collisions are not the big threat to pedestrians. Car–pedestrian collisions are. But avoiding any collision is a good thing.)

NYC DOT/Public Domain

Another thing is that «more-complicated” infrastructure makes people pay more attention. It’s not hard to check both ways before crossing the street, but pedestrians sometimes get complacent and neglect to adequately do so before walking across. Even more disturbingly, many drivers do not see and even do not look for pedestrians as they make turns where pedestrians cross. The results are… well, you know the results. However, when there are car lanes, protected bike lanes, and sidewalks, people become more aware that they need to carefully look around before crossing another transportation route. Very simply, the greater awareness protected bike lanes bring to drivers is one of the key reasons bicyclists are safer, and the same goes for pedestrians. With a path for each mode of transport, the majority of people are subtly but effectively asked to be more attentive to others.

Protected bike lanes also often result in narrower car lanes. On the public safety front, narrower car lanes are a big win. Wide roads designed for cars to drive fast will result in people driving faster. Narrower roads will communicate to the driver that they should be more cautious and drive more slowly. Studies have found road design to be more influential than speed limit signs for influencing driving speed.

NYC DOT/Public Domain

Okay, jumping into Michael’s points, his first one was related to my point just above. He noted that “protected bike lanes shorten crossing distances.” Indeed, with fewer or at least narrower car lanes, pedestrians can much more easily get from one side to the other without being touched by a car. In the case of crossing the bike lanes, if there is an unexpected encounter, it’s much easier for a bicyclist and a pedestrian to avoid each other than a car and a pedestrian.

Michael’s second point is also an excellent one: “protected bike lanes make it easier to know which direction cars are coming from.”

Jacob/CC BY-NC 2.0

With more of the roadway chopped up and delineated for specific users, pedestrians can more easily focus on the crossing point at hand and can more easily examine the possible routes cars might be coming from when crossing the car lanes. “When you’re walking, it’s not the traffic you expect that poses a danger — it’s the traffic you don’t expect,” Michael aptly notes.

Dani Simons/CC BY-NC-SA 2.0

The essence of Michael’s third point is visibility. Very well emphasized in the bicycling world (and general transportation safety world) is that one of the dangers people bicycling on sidewalks face is that they are more often shielded from drivers and a driver may not see them while turning across their path… until it is too late. A similar but perhaps less obvious point is that pedestrians (and joggers) can be shielded in the same way. If a driver has to cross a protected bike lane to get to where he or she is headed, he or she will have a clearer view of where bicyclists might be coming from, but also a clearer view of where pedestrians might be coming from.

Another matter of «visibility» that Michael didn’t mention but is also very important is that, the more bicyclists and pedestrians there are on the street, the more drivers take note that they need to watch out for bicyclists and pedestrians. Seeing more people on the street makes you more aware that people are on the street. Obvious, but often overlooked. This is surely one of the reasons that bicyclist fatalities and injuries drop, on a relative basis if not an absolute basis, as bicycling rates go up.

Paul Krueger/CC BY 2.0

Michael’s final point is the least obvious, in my opinion. It is: “protected bike lanes reduce traffic weaving.” This is an excellent point that wouldn’t have crossed my mind. It’s got to be one of the most dangerous actions for pedestrians: a driver is switching lanes while approaching a crosswalk and doesn’t see the shielded pedestrian until the last minute. As Michael puts it: “Another maneuver that endangers people walking is the ‘zip-around’: people swerving their car from one lane to another to get around a stopped car, only to realize the other driver had stopped to yield to someone in the crosswalk.” Almost all of us have seen close calls from this, and I’m sure many have seen worse. Protected bike lanes help here again when they reduce the number of car lanes (and especially “mixed traffic lanes”). “Once zip-arounds become impossible, people driving simply queue up to wait their turn — and people walking are, once again, the biggest winners.”

As we can see, there are a lot of obvious as well as subtle reasons why protected bike lanes help to protect pedestrians. Now that we have run down so many, can we have protected bike lanes on all the roads?!

Electric Vehicle To Enter The Dakar Rally For The First Time

Dakar Rally
Electric Vehicle To Enter The Dakar Rally For The First Time

Published on December 7th, 2014
by Christopher DeMorro

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For the first time in the 37-year history of the Dakar Rally, an electric vehicle will attempt to complete the over 5,000 mile course through some of the toughest terrain on the planet. If successful, it would be a major milestone for the electric vehicle movement, proving once and for all that EVs have a place in our transportation future.

This unique electric vehicle has been designed by Spanish civil engineering firm ACCIONA, which in the past two years has spearheaded ambitious sustainable missions like using kites to get to the South Pole. If that sounds crazy, it is, but not nearly as crazy as trying to complete the Dakar Rally in an electric vehicle. This is a race, mind you, and even if ACCIONA doesn’t expect to win, there’s still a time cutoff, so they’ve got to keep up the pace throughout the entire 5,000+ miles of the course spanning Argentina, Bolivia, and Chile. The race is divided into various stages, often 200+ miles apart…but that’s 200 miles up and down mountains, sand dunes, and rocky fields.

ACCIONA-1

Because no production vehicle could even hope to survive the Dakar Rally, ACCIONA build an entirely unique vehicle packing a 300 horsepower electric motor and four lithium-ion battery packs totalling 140 kWh of juice. That’s about the same amount of energy you’d find in a Tesla Model S85 and a pair of Nissan LEAFs, and it could power about 32 average homes for an entire day if plugged into the grid. It’s a whole lotta power, and ACCIONA has reportedly made the battery packs swappable, so downtime during the race can be kept to a minimum. There’s even a solar panel system that will supposedly ensure the batteries are charged only using the power of the sun, but I’m a little skeptical considering just how much juice this unique EV will need.

If successful, it would mark the first time the Dakar Rally was completed without using a single drop of fossil fuel. Considering the simplicity of electric motors though, the ACCIONA team should actually have an advantage when it comes to the higher elevations and air filter-choking desert portions of the course. In 2012 a plug-in hybrid completed Dakar, but efforts to bring an EV to the rally just haven’t panned out. Not even I was expecting an EV to attempt the course for a few more years.

If ACCIONA actually beat out some conventional powered competitors, you better believe the rest of the race field will be on notice.

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Tags: 2015, 2015 Dakar Rally, ACCIONA, argentina, Bolivia, chile, Dakar, Dakar Rally, electric rally car, Pikes Peak


About the Author

Christopher DeMorro A writer and gearhead who loves all things automotive, from hybrids to HEMIs, Chris can be found wrenching or writing- or esle, he’s running, because he’s one of those crazy people who gets enjoyment from running insane distances.


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  • Even the Saudis and OPEC fear the Renewables . . . they have decided to pump even when there is an oil glut – something that will actually shorten their life on earth as their well approach dry.

Alcoa unveils major advance in aluminum manufacturing technology; new Micromill targeting future automotive aluminum products

Alcoa unveils major advance in aluminum manufacturing technology; new Micromill targeting future automotive aluminum products

6 December 2014

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Alcoa’s Micromill has a much smaller footprint than conventional direct casting technology, and produces automotive aluminum alloys with 40% greater formability and 30% greater strength. Click to enlarge.

Alcoa has developed new manufacturing technology—the Micromill—that will produce what the company says is the most advanced aluminum sheet on the market. The Micromill will enable the next-generation of automotive aluminum products, and equip Alcoa to capture growing demand from automakers for lighter-weight, yet durable and formable materials.

The Alcoa-patented Micromill process significantly changes the microstructure of the metal, allowing the production of an aluminum alloy for automotive applications that has 40% greater formability and 30% greater strength than the incumbent aluminum used today while meeting stringent automotive surface quality requirements. The Alcoa Micromill technology and the differentiated metal it will produce are covered by more than 130 patents around the world.

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Additionally, automotive parts made with Micromill material will be twice as formable and at least 30% lighter than parts made from high strength steel. The Micromill alloy has formability characteristics comparable to mild steels.

Micromill aluminum sheet that is 40% more formable is easier to shape into intricate forms, such as the inside panels of automobile doors and external fenders, which today are generally made of steel. The 30% increase in material strength will improve dent resistance, enabling the production of automotive sheet that is thinner and even lighter than previous generations. Automakers will also benefit from reduced system cost by streamlining the number of aluminum alloys used in their manufacturing process.

It will also be the fastest, most productive aluminum casting and rolling system in the world, Alcoa claims. A traditional rolling mill takes around 20 days to turn molten metal into coil; Micromill does it in just 20 minutes.

The Micromill also has a significantly smaller footprint than a traditional rolling mill, at just one quarter the size, and lowers energy use by 50%.

According to Ducker Worldwide, North American aluminum automotive sheet content per vehicle is expected to increase eleven-fold between 2012 and 2025 as consumers demand cars that are lighter and more fuel efficient. The Micromill continuous casting technology is designed to meet that growing demand for automotive sheet, with the flexibility to serve the industrial and packaging markets as well. The mill can easily shift product mix, and transition to different alloys without ever stopping a cast.

Alcoa has secured a strategic development customer, and from its pilot Micromill facility in San Antonio, TX, has also conducted successful customer trials. Those trials have validated the Micromill material’s unique characteristics, surface quality for exterior panels and overall performance. Alcoa is qualifying the material for use in next-generation automotive platforms.

Siemens, Duke Energy and Ford demonstrate lower cost home smart charging technology for plug-ins; due on market next year

Siemens, Duke Energy and Ford demonstrate lower cost home smart charging technology for plug-ins; due on market next year

5 December 2014

Siemens Energy Management Division has teamed with Duke Energy and Ford to demonstrate the results of an 18-month effort to reduce the cost and expand electric vehicle charging technologies. Held at the Duke Energy Envision Center in Erlanger, Ky., and utilizing a Ford Fusion Energi Plug-In Hybrid, Siemens provided the first UL-approved residential electric vehicle supply equipment (EVSE) to demonstrate the ability to monitor status, report energy use, and be controlled locally from the local area network and from the cloud.

In 2012, Siemens was awarded $1.6 million in development funding from the US Department of Energy (DOE) to support research aimed at significantly reducing the current costs of electrical vehicle (EV) chargers and developing “smart” charging capabilities that support power grid efficiency and consumer demand.

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The grant, awarded to Siemens Corporation, Corporate Research and Technology (SCRT) was supported by nearly $750,000 in matching research funding—an investment shared with Siemens Low Voltage Electronics, the group responsible for Residential Electric Vehicle Supply Equipment and a business unit of Siemens Infrastructure and Cities.

During the demonstration, Siemens’ residential EVSE was shown to be accessible by web-connected computers, smart phones and tablets, allowing the EV owner to better monitor the status of the EV charging, schedule future charge events, as well as determine the total kilowatt hours consumed and the cost of charging.

With these technology developments, an EV owner can better understand the exact cost of charging the electric vehicle, schedule the charging process when rates are lowest, and share charging experiences. Utilities can also take advantage of the technology to offer programs that help manage the time and level of EV charging across the grid to increase grid reliability and efficiency while minimizing peak demand.

This demonstration marks a turning point for the EV industry and proves the tangible benefits of bringing advanced EVSE technologies into the home and the power marketplace. Intelligence in EV charging stations means homeowners can reduce the cost of charging up to 60 percent by automatically charging during low energy rate periods, where such programs are available. Utilities can shift loads off critical peak periods to avoid the need for new generation sources.

Also demonstrated was the ability to monitor and control the EVSE from an OpenADR server. OpenADR is an open standard for Automated Demand Response, allowing utilities to manage grid load resources remotely and automatically.

By using OpenADR or by directly accessing the Siemens Cloud, utilities can offer rate programs to EV owners to allow the consumer to charge at attractive rates while simultaneously allowing the utility to manage the loads on the grid. By shifting each EV charging event slightly in time, utilities can potentially reduce the peak demand on the grid, which in turn helps to reduce the total amount of generation needed.

Appliance connection. The Siemens EV charging station presented at the Envision Center also demonstrated a novel, new industry standard interface designed to allow appliances to work with utility demand response programs.

The connection is based on the CEA-2045 modular communications interface standard, introduced in February 2013 by the Consumer Electronics Association (CEA). Electric Power Research Institute (EPRI) is assessing the CEA-2045 interface to determine its ability to provide smart grid connectivity standard for water heaters, AC units and other large home energy loads. Siemens believes this EV charger is the first EVSE that provides this connectivity.

In addition to the CEA-2045 connector in the EVSE, Siemens also demonstrated a CEA-2045 communication module that provides Wi-Fi communications for any CEA-2045 enabled appliance.

The demonstration was funded as part of a grant received from the US Department of Energy’s (DOE) Office of Electricity Delivery and Energy Reliability (OE), which supports the development of EVSE’s that are capable of implementing smart charging of EVs, referred to as smart grid-capable EVSE. A goal of the OE Smart Grid Research and Development (RD) Program is to develop and implement smart grid technologies to support transportation electrification.

In March of 2012, the DOE awarded Siemens a grant to develop a low cost Smart Grid Capable EVSE. Duke Energy and Ford joined Siemens as partners to provide utility and automaker expertise and feedback.

The Siemens EV charging station with Wi-Fi connectivity and smart phone application used in this demonstration is expected to be available to the general public in 2015.

Tesla Model S tops Consumer Reports survey of «cars that owners love most» with 98%

The concept is very simple. Every year, Consumer Reports asks hundreds of thousands of people if they would buy again the car that they own, and why. Each segment sees winners and losers, and there’s also an overall winner with the highest «would buy again» score across all categories.

This year, the overall winner is the Tesla Model S with an impressive 98% of owners saying they would buy it again, with reasons ranging from the looks, the ride, the handling, the acceleration, the low maintenance costs, the low «fuel» costs, etc.

Here is the CR video that shows all of the winners and losers in every segment, including the overall winner:

The Model S has of course done well in the past with Consumer Reports, getting an unprecedented 99/100 score during testing, with the non-profit going as far as to say that it was the best car they’ve ever tested (not best electric car, best car). The Model S has received a similarly impressive score in last year’s customer satisfaction survey, so it wasn’t surprising when earlier this year CR named it the «overall best car of 2014».

© Tesla

Not bad for a car that a few years earlier almost nobody believed in.

Hopefully Tesla keeps doing as well with the Model X and Model 3, and other EV makers also keep upping their game!

Via Consumer Reports

Haldor Topsøe ECO-Jet wins award; reducing soot, HC and heavy metal emissions from ships powered by bunker fuel

Haldor Topsøe ECO-Jet wins award; reducing soot, HC and heavy metal emissions from ships powered by bunker fuel

5 December 2014

Haldor Topsøe A/S has won the Danish Engineering Product Award 2014 (in Danish Ingeniørens Produktpris 2014) for its new ECO-Jet solution. The product is a newly developed catalytic process capable of reducing emission of harmful substances such as soot, hydrocarbons and heavy metals from ships powered by bunker fuel, also known as fuel oil.

Particulate filter systems are developed for diesel engine exhaust with a relatively low sulfur and ash content. These systems can not be employed for maritime engines fueled with bunker oil, which contains very heavy hydrocarbons and polyaromatic compounds and is heavily contaminated with compounds which do not burn and end up as ash in the exhaust.

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The ECO-Jet catalytic process was developed over a number of years in cooperation with an Italian partner, EcoSpray. The process reduces up to 95% of soot emission from ships using bunker fuel and is the first of its kind. The ECO-Jet process also removes other harmful substances from the exhaust of engines using bunker fuel, for instance poisonous hydrocarbons and metals including vanadium, iron, nickel, silicon and sodium. The solution can be combined with a scrubber process to remove sulfur from flue gases. Bunker fuel may contain as much as 3.5 per cent sulfur.

According to the recently published patent (WO2014169967), essential features of ECO-Jet are a continuous passive regeneration of particulate filters by catalyzing the filters with soot combustion and hydrocarbon oxidation catalysts, thereby improving the fuel consumption by keeping the pressure drop over the particulate filters low and by periodically and effectively blowing off of ash by pulse injection of air into outlet of the filters. The catalysts remove sticky hydrocarbon-containing soot that facilitates the ash removal.

Soot in the exhaust gas from the engine contains further inorganic ash that cannot combust and therefore will accumulate in the filter over time and build up the pressure drop. Consequently, the ash must be removed by periodical reversing the flow direction of the exhaust gas through the filter or blowing off the ash by impulsed injection of air.

Basic steps in the process include:

  • operating the engine at a load to obtain an exhaust temperature of the exhaust gas of at least 325°C;

  • passing the exhaust gas at exhaust gas temperature 325 °C to 550 °C through at least one filter unit each comprising at least one particulate filter and capturing the soot, ash and heavy metals contained in the exhaust gas;

  • continuously burning the captured soot and adhered hydrocarbons off the at least one particulate filter by contact with a catalyst on the filter;

  • periodically disconnecting at least one filter unit from flow of the exhaust gas unit and closing the outlet of the at least one particulate filter; and

  • subsequently pulse-injecting air into the closed outlet of the at least one particulate filter in reverse to the previous flow of the exhaust gas and blowing the captured ash and remaining amounts of soot together with the heavy metals off the filter.

The catalyst comprises titanium dioxide, oxides of vanadium and tungsten and metallic palladium; the catalyst reduces the ignition temperature of the trapped soot down to 350°C and at optimal process conditions further down to 325°C.

When they put out to sea, large ships using bunker fuel emit harmful black smoke, and this smoke represents a major source of air pollution locally and globally. With Topsøe’s new process, we have an operational technology in place that is able to reduce emissions of soot and heavy metals. The process has interesting, environmental perspectives and, for Topsøe, promising commercial perspectives as well.

According to Topsøe Senior Scientist Keld Johansen, while ships could sail on environmentally friendly marine fuel with a sulfur content less than 0.1%, such conversion is still much too expensive:

For many years now, the ship industry has discussed using environmentally friendly fuel. The problem is, however, that the global refinery capacity is still too small to replace bunker fuel. That is why we have to treat the exhaust from bunker fuel in another way. And with our catalytic process, this is feasible now.

Topsøe’s new emission process is the result of several pilot projects. The largest pilot was the cruise ship MS Queen Victoria, which accommodates more than 2,000 passengers.

Resources

  • “Method And System For The Removal Of Particulate Matter Soot, Ash And Heavy Metals From Engine Exhaust Gas” (WO/2014/169967)

ICCT: US airlines will need to sharply increase fleet renewal to meet 2020 carbon-neutral growth goal

ICCT: US airlines will need to sharply increase fleet renewal to meet 2020 carbon-neutral growth goal

6 December 2014

In order for the US commercial aviation sector to meet its 2020 carbon-neutral growth goal, airline efficiency improvements via the acquisition of new aircraft and engine technology will to increase sharply from their present rate, according to a brief analysis posted by the International Council on Clean Transportation (ICCT).

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The quick analysis comes on the heels of ICCT’s recently released 2013 US airline fuel efficiency ranking that found no net gain in the fuel efficiency of US domestic airlines operations from 2012 to 2013. (Earlier post.) That report, an annual update to an earlier report, also investigated changes in fuel efficiency since 2010, both for individual airlines and the industry as a whole.

In this most recent post, ICCT projected the average fleet age through 2020 using the 2013 fleet as a baseline; aircraft deliveries by airline from the Ascend Fleets database; standard aircraft retirement curves; and activity projections based upon the recent past. It also estimated a simple fleet turnover rate—i.e., the number of years it will take each airline to replace its current fleet (in 2013) with entirely with new aircraft.

ICCT determined that, compared to the average fleet age of 13 years in 2013, the projected fleet age in 2020 will be 11 years.