Category Archives: Alternative transportation

Retrospective: Four Years of Nissan Leaf and Chevy Volt

For a couple of family cars that sell in comparatively modest volumes, Nissan’s Leaf and Chevrolet’s Volt have made an outsized splash into the automotive landscape.

Now four years since the first production Leaf was delivered Dec. 11, 2010 in the U.S., and the first Volt was sold days later on Dec. 15, the two pioneer plug-in cars have inspired a new global sub-industry.

Of course the Leaf developed in Japan is all-electric and the Volt from the U.S. is “extended-range electric” with gas generator backup, thus they’re dissimilar technological approaches. But despite an informal sales “race” begun 48 months ago between the East meets West matchup with trading places along the way, in a broader sense they’re on the same team.

While the more insular fans of these cars and the companies behind them may emphasize differences, each is a first-generation attempt toward weaning away from dependence upon petroleum and seriously curbing emissions.

Highlights

Both the Leaf and Volt were launched in staged U.S. rollouts. Initial deliveries of pre-ordered Leafs went to Arizona, California, Hawaii, Oregon, Tennessee, Texas and Washington, while pre-ordered Volts were first sold in Washington D.C., the New York City region, California, and Austin, Texas.

Former GM Vice Chairman Bob Lutz was inspired (goaded) by the Tesla Roadster after the 2006 Detroit Auto Show, and by 2007 GM had a concept car on display.

Former GM Vice Chairman Bob Lutz, was inspired (goaded) by the Tesla Roadster after the 2006 Detroit Auto Show, and by 2007 GM had a concept car on display.

Various markets followed and nationwide distribution was in place by November 2011 for Chevrolet and by March 2012 for Nissan.

Markets in other countries were also being carved out during this period and following. The Leaf has always enjoyed a strong footing in Japan, while the Volt does not get such honors. The Leaf now also is more firmly rooted in other markets around the world.

SEE ALSO: 2013 Nissan Leaf Review – Video

General Motors also built and exported from its Detroit-Hamtramck plant the right- and left-hand-drive Opel/Vauxhall Amperas and Holden Volts and Euro market Chevy Volts. Early reports were these were well received, but Chevrolet has since all but pulled out of Europe, and GM is discontinuing the Opel/Vauxhall variants after lackluster sales. Holden appears to be holding on.

Although the Volt accrued what may be the longest list of awards and accolades, the also-awarded Leaf escaped much of the rancor in the U.S. the Volt endured on account of General Motors which had just been bankrupted and federally rescued.

2011 Nissan Leaf.

2011 Nissan Leaf.

During the last presidential election campaign, not a week would go by without some op-ed piece attempting to throw mud on GM’s “Obamamobile” named after the incumbent president who purportedly “picks losers,” said his opponents.

Also, during 2011 the National Highway Transportation Safety Administration crash tested a Volt, then instead of “depowering” its high-voltage battery just as they would have drained a conventional car’s gas tank, they left it charged and parked it. The car which had been slammed into a pole sideways reminded them of their error when coolant from its broken coolant lines crystallized, bridged electrically live terminals, and started a small fire a couple weeks later.

What do you want to bet GM avoids any politicians being officially photographed with its gen-2 Volt?

What do you want to bet GM avoids any politicians being officially photographed with its gen-2 Volt?

But the error was blamed on the Volt, and in November 2011, NHTSA opened a probe. GM then proceeded to bend over backwards offering to buy the car back from “concerned” owners, and worked with the feds to create a steel piece to add security for such an impact.

Nissan was blissfully untouched by such PR nightmares that sympathetic observers said were overblown and unfair. The Leaf does not even have liquid cooling like the Volt does, but its battery has not proven as durable, and did suffer its own heat-related problems.

The Leaf’s issues happened in first-wave rollout states, especially Arizona, California, and Texas where Leaf owners in 2012 were reporting premature battery capacity degradation. These cases were a small percent of total sales, but affected Leaf owners saw range drop from 73 miles rated to 60, 50, and as low as the 40-some mile mark.

In 2013 the refreshed, but still gen-one Leaf became capable of 84 miles rated range with full battery charge.

In 2013 the refreshed, but still gen-one Leaf became capable of 84 miles rated range with full battery charge.

Not good, and Nissan did change its chemistry slightly for 2013, while not adding liquid cooling, and it added a pro-rated warranty provision. Since then, we’ve heard less on this, but that Nissan went without liquid cooling was criticized back in 2010 as a rush-to-market measure.

To be sure, there have been teething problems with the gen-one cars, more than these cited, but the Volt and Leaf were meanwhile garnering serious fans. Both are more than cars, they represent a cause.

SEE ALSO: 2013 Chevrolet Volt Review – Video

And, despite issues real and perceived, the Leaf and Volt have proven effective at meeting their goals. The Leaf uses no gasoline, and since 2013 range went to 84 miles while intraday charging can extend this for those who need it. The Volt meanwhile has been used like an EV with gas generator, and early adopters have accrued 700 million electric miles since launch, and on average go over 900 miles between fill-ups having saved 36.5 million gallons of gas.

Environmentally minded supporters as well as energy hawks, and those from all political stripes have seen their potential. The cheerleader factor has thus been alive and well for web-based forums, owner clubs, and other organizations developed around these cars or otherwise supportive of alternative energy transportation.

This all happened while the actual sales of these cars was barely a blip on a chart next to many internal combustion passenger vehicles that sell many times the numbers.

Chevy Volt being side-impact tested at 20 mph.

Chevy Volt being side-impact tested at 20 mph.

Initial 2011 sales under 10,000 for either car saw the Leaf win that first full year, while its sales growth stagnated for the next year as the Volt handily more-than doubled its sales in spite of all the politicized and irrational rancor over barely understood “technology.”

SEE ALSO: 13 Key Questions and Answers about Nissan Leaf Battery Pack and Ordering

Nor is this “barely understood” descriptor an example of editorializing. Rather, it’s been documented consumers have largely not noticed or failed to wrap their minds around how these cars work – thus how they may benefit from them, so sales have not been helped.

After a two-year initial gauntlet in the U.S., both automakers cut prices enough to make them look less like expensive science projects, especially since they are eligible for $7,500 federal tax credits, state and local subsidies in cases, and solo HOV lane access in California.

Both cars had suffered under initially higher starting prices, and for 2013 a new S trim level of the Leaf was $6,000 cheaper than the former SV, and GM upgraded and Volt’s battery from 16.0-kwh to 16.5, increasing efficiency and all-electric range by 3 miles as well. GM cut the Volt’s price by $5,000 last August, eight months after Nissan.

Nissan has creatively drummed up publicity for the Leaf, including a staged quiet race through streets at night in Europe.

Nissan has creatively drummed up publicity for the Leaf, including a staged quiet race through streets at night in Europe.

But not helping things has been a marketing deficit, especially for the Volt, which was declared a “niche” product this year by GM, and marketed mainly at tech fairs and in California, the largest plug-in market by far.

SEE ALSO: 2015 Volt Gets Larger 17.1-kWh Battery

After initially higher sales goals had been cut back in 2011, and following negative PR in year two, one might surmise chastened GM had internally conceded the Volt was not a home run, and put its tail between its legs – much to the chagrin of supporters. Others have speculated an internal change of heart as the early “Volt Team” which developed the car dissipated, jumped ship, or moved to other positions.

Of the two companies, Nissan – led by bullish CEO Carlos Ghosn, has been the more assertive in continuing to market the Leaf. Nissan was also helped in 2013 when it began battery and car production in Smyrna Tenn., – along with Sunderland UK, and Oppama Japan – in an effort to get localize assembly closer to distribution points.

Year by year. U.S. sales tally as follows: 2010 – Leaf: 19, Volt: 326; 2011 – Leaf: 9,674; Volt: 7,671; 2012 – Leaf: 9,819; Volt: 23,461; 2013 – Leaf: 22,610; Volt 23,094; 2014 through November: Leaf: 27,098; Volt: 17,315.

Today

All this year Nissan has been closing a U.S. sales gap, though with the Volt’s 71,867 U.S. sales since launch, the Volt still holds a diminishing lead over the Leaf’s 69,220 through November. The Volt has however long-since lost the global race with 87,085 total Volt and Volt/Ampera sales compared to the Leaf’s 150,000-plus.

But in just one month from now, GM will reveal its 2016 generation two Volt that fans are hoping will breath new life into the program. That car may have seating for five, better efficiency and e-range, and enthusiasts also hope for all the trouble, GM will market the car nationwide like it means it, and not price it above the $35,000 mark of gen one.

Will tables turn when the new Volt is released next summer and Leaf is still hanging in there?

Will tables turn when the new Volt is released next summer and Leaf is still hanging in there?

The Leaf meanwhile has largely gotten a pass on being viewed as aging goods, or so it might appear. Also true is Nissan keeps advertising in more markets and its lower net price with incentives and cheap $200-300 leases have given it the sales edge against the lame duck Volt.

Actually, the Leaf may soon look lamer as Nissan has not announced a replacement, although Ghosn says a double-range battery is in the offing.

Even so, the two cars have inspired a market of followers. To date, they still stand heads above as relative grandfathers. No other mainstream priced EV comes close to the Leaf’s U.S. sales, and no other plug-in hybrid offers near the unique Volt’s electric range.

Leaf_in_grass
But competition is pending in a yet-small but growing market. There are now eight more plug-in hybrids sold in the U.S. and 12 more battery electric vehicles besides the Volt and Leaf. Of the two segments, BEVs had a take rate of 0.48 percent of the 15.5-million annual U.S. passenger vehicle market last month, while PHEVs comprised 0.28 percent.

SEE ALSO: Aging Chevy Volt Awarded 2014 Electric/Hybrid Best Buy

There is much room to grow, and cheap gas at the moment isn’t helping. But the underlying need to curb emissions and cut petroleum dependence remains, so more plug-in cars will be following thanks in no small part to the Volt and the Leaf.

Before they came along the plug-in market was next to zero and by September U.S. plug-in sales had crossed 250,000 and by October they were globally more than 600,000.

Top Gear Drives The Porsche 918 Spyder

Plug-in Hybrids
Top Gear Drives The Porsche 918 Spyder

Published on December 11th, 2014
by Steve Hanley

0

For most of us, the closest we will ever get to being behind the wheel of the awesome Porsche 918 Spyder plug-in hybrid supercar is watching this video, in which Top Gear’s Richard Hammond takes one out on track in Dubai. Blasting the car down the 1.2 kilometer long back straight has to rank as one of the greatest thrills in all of motoring.

Only 918 of these 887 horsepower beasts will ever be made and every one of them is spoken for, according to Porsche. At $850,000 a copy, it’s unlikely I would ever be able to afford one anyway. But I can still save this video to a special place on my computer and revisit it whenever I feel my energy level dropping and need a rush of adrenalin.

Porsche’s chief of research and development, Wolfgang Hatz, says there may be a successor to the mighty 918 Spyder……someday. So there’s still hope for ordinary car nuts like you and me – if we start buying more lottery tickets. As good as the 918 is though, Top Gear still chose the rival BMW i8 as their Car of the Year. I wonder why?

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Tags: Dubai race track, Porsche 918, Porsche 918 Spyder, porsche 918 video, Richard Hammond, Richard Hammond drives Porsche 918 in Dubai, Top Gear, Top Gear Porsche 918 video


About the Author

Steve Hanley I have been a car nut since the days when articles by John R. Bond and Henry N. Manney, III graced the pages of Road Track. I know every nut, bolt and bullet connector on an MGB from 20 years of ownership. I now drive a 94 Miata for fun and the occasional HPDE track day. If it moves on wheels, I am interested in it. Please follow me on Google + and Twitter.


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Company Gives New Life to EV Batteries and Electricity to Indian Schools

Electrical engineer Siva Rajendran is solving two big problems with one good idea. By starting a company that uses discarded batteries from electric cars to power schools in India, Rajendran wants to keep electric batteries out of landfills while simultaneously providing Indian school children with the electricity they need to learn.

According to a story published in Forbes, Rajendran started Totus Power two years ago and is currently trying to raise $40,000 through an Indiegogo crowdfunding campaign to fund production. So far he has raised $10,517.

Rajendran worked for an electric car company before founding Totus Power where he tried to solve the problem of recycling electric car batteries. Rajendran told Forbes that since electric car batteries are reduced to only 70 percent of their original strength after about five years, millions of potentially useful batteries are thrown out every year.

Eventually, Rajendran also became aware of rampant brownouts in Indian schools. After speaking with a friend who was trying to improve education for Indian children, Rajendran learned that even when these children had access to the technological tools they needed to learn, the subpar electrical infrastructure in India left them without electricity much of the day. Soon Rajendran realized that the two problems might have a mutually beneficial solution.

Rajendran has succeeded in obtaining some funding to create a portable power source using electric vehicle batteries that is strong enough to power 20 tablets and a classroom projector for 20 hours. He received $40,000 from StartUp Chile to create a prototype, and now he needs money to create battery management boards.

Rajendran told Forbes that after two years of hard work all of the “key pieces are in place,” the only missing piece is more funding to keep the mission-based venture moving forward.

Forbes

Luxury Automakers Watching The Tesla Sales Strategy

Car Buying
tesla-test-2

Published on December 11th, 2014
by Christopher DeMorro

3

tesla-test-2

Elon Musk’s greatest contribution to mankind may not be PayPal, Tesla Motors, or even SpaceX, but rather his efforts to change the way cars are bought and sold. WardsAuto reports that Lexus is among those luxury automakers eyeing the low-pressure sales tactics and mall store locations used by Tesla Motors.

Lexus has already admitted that it is losing sales to Tesla, and while the Model S is unlike anything in the Lexus lineup, the customer-friendly attitude of Tesla salespeople can’t be underestimated. Speak to any Model S owner, and they’ll sing the praises of both the car and the no-pressure, design-your-own-car sales process. Because the sales team is paid on salary rather than commission, there’s no need to pressure buyers, and by locating stores inside malls rather than on traditional large car lots, these dealerships serve as an informational experience for consumers as well.

“The model that Tesla has to open up their outlets in shopping malls is a clever one, (and) I think they’re getting a lot of folks to stop in and learn about Tesla,” Jeff Bracken, group vice president-Lexus told WardsAuto. Younger buyers in particular are less comfortable with the traditional car dealership as a learning experience, but Tesla’s welcoming embrace encourages consumers to engage the brand more and tell their friends. Not everyone can afford a Tesla (yet), but word of mouth has gotten the electric automaker a long way thus far. Tesla owners may have a unique set of problems, but they’re problems I’d glady trade my conventional car for.

This is only possible because of Tesla’s direct sales method, which cuts out franchised dealerships and allows Tesla to make the decisions on how to sell its cars. While many dealership lobbies have lashed out with anti-Tesla legislation, others are adapting the successful sales methods to help out their own brands. Lexus has openly acknowledged watching the Tesla sales model, but remains coy on just what, if any measures it plans to implement at its own stores. Musk is also considering a “hybrid” model that includes franchised dealerships, but for now its direct sales or nothing for Tesla.

Elon Musk has America discussing a lot of important topics, whether its electric cars or a manned mission to mars. But what he might be best remembered for is how he made car shopping a much better experience for us all.

Image: Christopher DeMorro/GAS2.org

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Tags: dealership lobbies, direct sales, Lexus, sales, Tesla, Tesla Motors, Tesla sales


About the Author

Christopher DeMorro A writer and gearhead who loves all things automotive, from hybrids to HEMIs, Chris can be found wrenching or writing- or esle, he’s running, because he’s one of those crazy people who gets enjoyment from running insane distances.


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  • As someone who was deeply involved in the Saturn no pressure/no haggle sales process, I have always thought that is the way to sell automobiles. Musk is merely the most recent exponent of “soft” selling.

  • I truly believe Elon Musk has done more for the automobile industry than any other human in the past decade. While the other manufacturers are in it for the profit, he still has the passion for invention. The evolution of any company turns from one of passion to that of pleasing stock holders. All to sad but I’m glad someone with big enough pockets has a fighting chance. The last attempt was Tucker… He also started dozens of automobile firsts that are used to this day. Seat belts for one but was squashed by the larger companies at the time.

    Great to see the EV revolution happening in our life time.

    The opinions expressed here are solely from Phil Tuttobene, CEO and EV developer for TotalAutomationWorks, LLC and may not represent Gas2.org’s.
    https://www.facebook.com/pages/Total-AUTOmation-Works-LLC/599825060053495

    • ZEV credits program=$35,000 per unit sold indeed a nice profit.

ExxonMobil: global GDP up ~140% by 2040, but energy demand ~35% due to efficiency; LDV energy demand to rise only slightly despite doubling parc

ExxonMobil: global GDP up ~140% by 2040, but energy demand ~35% due to efficiency; LDV energy demand to rise only slightly despite doubling parc

10 December 2014

Xom1
As the world population increases by the estimated 30% from
2010 to 2040, ExxonMobil sees global GDP rising by about 140%, but energy demand by only about 35% due to greater efficiency. Click to enlarge.

Significant growth in the global middle class, expansion of emerging economies and an additional 2 billion people in the world will contribute to a 35% increase in energy demand by 2040, according to ExxonMobil’s latest Outlook for Energy report.

Even as demand increases, the world will continue to become more efficient in its energy use, according to the 2015 Outlook for Energy: A View to 2040. Without efficiency gains across economies worldwide, energy demand from 2010 to 2040 would be headed toward a 140% increase instead of the 35% forecast in the report.

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ExxonMobil focused particularly on three groups of countries in projecting future energy trends:

  • China and India, which are expected to account for half the growth in global energy demand because these two developing economies will lead the world in terms of population size and the pace of growth in standards of living.

  • A group of 10 Key Growth countries is expected to represent an increasingly significant share of the global energy market due to their rising populations and living standards. This geographically diverse group comprises Brazil and Mexico in the Americas; South Africa and Nigeria in Africa; Egypt and Turkey in North Africa/Mediterranean; Saudi Arabia and Iran in the Middle East; as well as Thailand and Indonesia in Asia.

  • The OECD represents the developed economies. Of the 34 member countries in the OECD, two (Mexico and Turkey) are included in the Key Growth category because their energy and economic growth more closely mirror that of the developing economies. ExxonMobil uses OECD32 to signify the remaining developed economies that continue to show income growth but have relatively modest changes in energy demand.

Overview. ExxonMobil’s Outlook for Energy projects that carbon-based fuels will continue to meet about three quarters of global energy needs through 2040—a finding consistent with many projections, including those made by the International Energy Agency. The outlook shows a shift toward lower-carbon fuels in the coming decades that, in combination with efficiency gains, will lead to a gradual decline in energy-related carbon dioxide emissions.

Progress on curbing carbon dioxide emissions through 2040 will be led by OECD nations as energy demand declines and a shift to lower-carbon fuels occurs. Energy-related carbon dioxide emissions in those countries are projected to be about 10% below 1980 levels, even though they will have about 40% more people and significantly larger economies.

Across OECD nations, the Outlook assumes the implied cost of policies to reduce greenhouse gas emissions will reach about $80 per tonne in 2040.

Wind, solar and biofuels are expected to be the fastest-growing energy sources, increasing about 6% a year on average through 2040, when they will be approaching 4% of global energy demand. Renewables in total will account for about 15% of energy demand in 2040. Nuclear energy, one of the fastest-growing energy sources, is expected to nearly double from 2010 to 2040, with growth in the Asia Pacific region, led by China, accounting for about 75% of the increase.

The global middle class is expected to climb from about 2 billion in 2010 to almost 5 billion people by 2030, representing more than half of the world’s population, according to the Brookings Institution. As projected, that middle class expansion—largely in India and China—will be the largest in history and will have a profound impact on energy demand. Along with income gains, on-going societal changes such as expanded infrastructure, electrification and urbanization will contribute to greater energy use.

The Outlook for Energy identifies a significant evolution in the trade of oil and other liquids. A major shift is seen as North America will likely become a net exporter of liquids by 2020 as supplies of tight oil, natural gas liquids and bitumen from oil sands increase. This is expected to open new trading opportunities as Asia Pacific’s net imports are projected to rise by nearly 80% by 2040. Africa’s liquids exports are expected to decline as local demand more than doubles. In Latin America, growth in supplies is anticipated to outpace demand as supplies of deepwater and unconventional liquids expand.

North America unconventional gas production will nearly triple by 2040 and the region is expected to surpass the combined output of Russia and the Caspian region as the largest gas-producing area. In Asia Pacific, gas production is seen doubling by 2040, driven partly by unconventional production technologies. Demand in the region is expected to climb by about 170%, according to the outlook, and as a result, Asia Pacific will likely overtake Europe as the world’s largest gas importer.

Natural gas is expected to be the fastest-growing major fuel source during the outlook period as demand increases by about 65%. Half of that increase will come from the Asia Pacific region, led by China. Utilities and industrial operations are expected to account for about 80% of the demand increase worldwide, as operators increasingly choose natural gas because of its lower emissions and versatility as a fuel and feedstock. By 2040, natural gas is expected to account for more than a quarter of global energy use, surpassing coal in the overall mix.

Demand for coal is expected to rise through 2025 and then decline as China’s economic growth gradually slows and it follows the shift seen in Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) countries toward cleaner fuels. Still, over time, global coal demand is expected to remain most prominent in Asia Pacific, primarily to support growing power-generation requirements.

Other key findings of the outlook include:

  • Non-OECD countries will represent 70% of global energy demand by 2040, but energy demand per person in these nations will remain well below OECD levels.

  • Energy required to meet rising electricity demand will account for about half of total demand growth.

  • Technologies that unlock new unconventional oil and gas supplies will help enable oil and natural gas to meet about 65% of global energy demand growth.

  • Oil is expected to remain the Nº 1 energy source and demand will increase by nearly 30%, driven by expanding needs for transportation and chemicals.

  • By 2040, abundant sources other than conventional crude and condensate will account for about 45% of global liquids production, compared with less than 25% in 2010. Remarkably, estimates of remaining recoverable crude and condensate relative to current demand have risen from about 60 years in 1981 to about 150 years as of 2013.

  • Rising natural gas demand will be met with abundant new supplies and significant expansion in trade as unconventional gas production nearly quadruples and LNG trade triples by 2040.

Transportation in general. The Outlook projects global energy demand for transportation to rise by 40% from 2010 to 2040. Again, these energy needs will vary significantly by country.

  • The Outlook projects that from 2010 to 2040, transportation energy needs in OECD32 countries will fall about 10%, while in the rest of the world these needs are expected to double. China and India will together account for about half of the global increase.

  • Commercial transportation—heavy-duty vehicles, marine, aviation and rail—drives the growth in energy for transportation in every region. As global GDP increases about 140% from 2010 to 2040, energy needs in these four subsectors are likely to grow about 70%. As a result, the amount of fuel required to support a unit of economic output is projected to decline 30% from 2010 to 2040, or more than three times faster than the rate of improvement from 1980 to 2010.

  • The number of light-duty vehicles in the world is expected to more than double, from approximately 825 million in 2010 to about 1.7 billion in 2040. However, energy demand for cars and other personal vehicles is expected to rise only slightly from 2010 to 2040, as fuel economy improvements in passenger cars over time essentially offset a steep rise in the number of cars in the world.

  • Improved transportation efficiencies will help curb global liquids (petroleum products and biofuels) demand growth in 2040 by about 35 MBDOE. In addition, another 5 MBDOE will be saved as consumers switch to other fuel sources such as natural gas. This combined 40 MBDOE in avoided liquids demand represents a significant amount of fuel. It is a little less than half the approximately 89 MBDOE of total liquids used in the world in 2010. The biggest contributions to savings will come from personal and commercial road vehicles, which each account for about 40 percent of the 40 MBDOE expected to be saved in 2040.

  • About 85% of the growth in the global fleet through 2040 will likely come from countries outside the OECD32, where per capita income is likely to be more than two and a half times the 2010 level. China alone is expected to account for about 40% of the global fleet increase.

  • By 2040, China’s light-duty vehicle fleet is expected to be about
    400 million—40%t bigger than the US fleet. In 2010 it was only 60 million. The main reasons are rising incomes and an expanding middle class.

Fuel efficiency. The Outlook projects that the fuel economy of the average vehicle on the world’s roads will be 45 mpg (5.22 l/100 km) in 2040, compared to about 25 mpg (9.4 l/100 km) in 2010. A significant contributor to this increased efficiency will be improvements in “conventional” gasoline and diesel engines.

Xom3
Projected sales of light-duty vehicles by type. Source: ExxonMobil Outlook. Click to enlarge.

The Outlook sees hybrid vehicles growing from 1% of new-car sales in 2010 to close to 50% of sales by 2040, making up about one-third
of the global fleet at that time. This is significant because hybrid cars can provide about a 30% fuel economy benefit compared to conventional gasoline cars and are expected to become cost-competitive by 2025.

On the other hand, plug-in hybrid and full electric cars are likely continue to make modest gains, but penetration will remain very low due to their high cost and functional constraints compared to alternatives, according to the report. Even though battery costs are likely to fall in coming decades, electric vehicles will continue to face significant challenges as other alternatives also improve; the Outlook sees electric vehicles accounting for only about 5% of the global fleet in 2040.

We project that energy needs for light-duty vehicles will increase by only about 10 percent from 2010 to 2025, after which demand will likely decline about 5 percent to 2040. This flattening of demand will be a significant accomplishment, especially considering that the global vehicle fleet is projected to double during that time period.

Two Dozen Automotive Brands Are Looking For The Hydrogen Highway

Critics of hydrogen fuel cell vehicles have said they have no business case; at best their proponents are defying odds, and at worst they’re on a misbegotten errand – but that hasn’t stopped numerous automakers from getting deeply involved.

While several automakers have first-generation plug-in cars and are looking toward new and evolved products, no fewer than 24 mainstream nameplates have built at least one fuel cell development vehicle, if not an evolving series of developmental or production cars.

An early pre-production Hyundai Tucson ix FCEV.

An early pre-production Hyundai Tucson ix FCEV.

Basically, automakers are trying everything to see what pays off with no fewer than eight deep-pocketed players having said they are planning passenger FCVs between now and decade’s end. However, only three FCVs are presently being sold or pending sale in the U.S. whereas there are a dozen battery electric cars, and nine plug-in hybrids. This said, there is a sizable undercurrent of interest and money being spent to push fuel cell cars to viability. Also not hurting things is California is offering nine zero emission vehicle credits per car versus no more than four for the largest battery equipped Tesla Model S. And governments and industry stakeholders are posturing in what may be a race between alternative technologies now with plug-ins leading by a nose.

Boxes Checked

Automakers, such as General Motors, like that certain “boxes” have been “checked” for criteria needed on the way to making FCVs mainstream suitable.

They are zero emission, have been tested for safety, offer quick refueling, durability competitive with internal combustion cars, and range also on par.

Actress Diane Kruger spray washes a Mercedes B-Class F-CELL.

Actress Diane Kruger spray washes a Mercedes B-Class F-CELL.

Fuel cell electric cars today generally employ a fuel cell stack that mixes hydrogen with air to give off electrons for electric propulsion. The hydrogen is typically gaseous, stored in high pressure tank(s), and system components are borrowed from hybrid/electric cars – including the batteries – thus FCVs are typically a form of hybrid with gas engine deleted.

SEE ALSO: Toyota Preparing For ‘The Next 100 Years’ With Fuel Cell Vehicles

Fuel cell tech is also scalable and flexible; not solely aimed at automotive transportation. For example, Honda uses a stationary fuel cell stack at its Torrance, Calif. headquarters for electric power, and BMW uses fuel cells in its forklifts. Other applications include the power source for watercraft, buses, limos, trucks, tractors, and for space exploration as well.

The allure is surely there, but costs remain prohibitive, infrastructure is almost nil, and other challenges exist besides. Following are automakers working to change that:

Production Cars

Honda

The Japanese innovator that was selling clean and green cars long before the EPA regs got serious and Detroit was pushing heavy iron has had its FCX Clarity fuel cell vehicle for lease in the U.S., Japan and in Europe.

It’s been leased in Southern California since 2010 for $600 per month including fuel because regulators have not established a metered price – and still haven’t – for hydrogen.

Honda_FCX_Clarity-668

Early promises of infrastructure by California authorities have led to stalled or sideways growth, and some months may go by where only a couple units are delivered. It’s next to no market, but Honda is collecting data. In a large sense it is a public science project for the next generation, but it is a bona fide production car.

Next up, Honda is working toward a five-passenger Jetsonesque follow-up to be ready by fiscal 2015 for 2016 sales.

Assuming success, in years ahead Honda’s Acura division might also have FCVs.

Hyundai

Hyundai has launched its $499 leased Tucson SUV in Southern California as well – as this is where all the refueling stations are and the state credits ZEVs as meeting regulations. Hyundai has also released the car in Europe and South Korea.

Hyundai_Tucson_Fuel_Cell-668

The vehicle was just launched last year and this, but has been a gleam in its maker’s eye since 2005’s LA auto show. As is the case with all these brands of FCVs, Hyundai has road tested it in all conditions, and developed efficiencies while reducing production costs.

U.S. sales are not precisely known, as Hyundai lumps the FCV with the gas-powered Tucson in monthly reporting.

Toyota

The Mirai probably needs little introduction, as we’ve had lots of news on this from the maker of the Prius.

The four-passenger sedan will start in the U.S. at $57,500 and hope is federal subsidies of as much as $8,000 will be renewed after they expire next year to add to $5,000 from California.

Toyo_Mirai_H2

Sales in the home market where Toyota itself receives significant governmental assistance, begin Monday. Europe is due to follow in September 2015, and U.S. not long after next year.

SEE ALSO: 2016 Toyota Mirai FCV First Drive – Video

The plan is to slowly push ahead, follow infrastructure to market, spend the money and time and be patient. Eventually it would be not unlikely to expect Lexus branded FCVs, and meanwhile Toyota is well underway on two other FCVs though we know little about these.

Collaborations

Platinum-requiring fuel cell stacks have been expensive, and to date that fact plus lack of infrastructure are what is keeping back automakers from coming to market who otherwise could.

To share costs and intellectual property, automakers who’ve at other times worked independently have teamed up and have issued forward-looking statements promising products.

Daimler, Ford, Nissan

In January 2013 a pact was agreed upon by three major automotive players to pool talent, resources and intellectual property to make the “world’s first” viable FCV by 2017.

Actually, each wants its own uniquely branded model but they say they’ll save costs by utilizing common system design.

Here’s where cynics start to mutter something about vaporware, or hype, or overpromising and under delivering.

FCEVs are the obvious next step to complement today's battery electric vehicles as our industry embraces more sustainable transportation, says the maker of the Leaf.

Nissan Terra FCEV. “FCEVs are the obvious next step to complement today’s battery electric vehicles as our industry embraces more sustainable transportation,” says the maker of the Leaf. “Our FCEVs make use of the lithium-ion batteries and high-power electric systems refined in our EV development, as well as the control systems from our hybrid vehicles and the high-pressure gas storage technologies from our compressed natural gas vehicles (CNG Vs).”

True enough these companies have not delivered much news, and there aren’t that many shopping days till 2017 remaining, but while we have yet to hear a lot of progress, these are multi-billion dollar efforts.

Ford.Daimler.Nissan_FCEV_pact

Whether they are late to market – as Daimler itself has been – may be a possibility. Predicting when future tech will get here is about like BEV fans talking about when lithium-air batteries will be ready.

But jaundiced views aside, just like next-gen batteries for plug-in cars, hydrogen powered Mercedes, Fords, Lincolns, Nissans and Infinitis may be less a matter of if, and only a question of when?

BMW and Toyota

Toyota is floating its own enterprise, and just like each of these collaborators in this article, BMW has also worked independently on hydrogen fuel cell vehicles.

BMW_1-series

Together now they have signed more than one agreement and very assertively state with all corporate pride that fuel cells are a part of the alternative energy future.

BMW is getting more press these days for its i-Series and its i3 has quickly ascended to third place in monthly U.S. sales among bettery electric cars, but BMW just like government regulators, subscribe to the “all of the above” approach.

“TMC and the BMW Group share the same strategic vision of future sustainable mobility,” said Norbert Reithofer, chairman of the Board of Management of BMW AG.

BMW_Toyo_signing_Munich

For good measure, TMC and BMW also plan to develop beyond-lithium-ion battery tech. So, for all the people disgruntled at Toyota, it aims to have a lithium-air battery with energy density greatly exceeding that of current lithium-ion batteries.

SEE ALSO: BMW Stops Talking to GM about Fuel Cells, May Begin With Toyota

This Toyota is doing besides other work on batteries. But, as for FCVs, the collaborators are sharing technologies to jointly develop a fuel cell vehicle system, including fuel cell stack and system, hydrogen tank, motor and battery. Target date is 2020, so stay tuned!

General Motors and Honda

Here we have the world’s number one FCV patent holder (GM) sharing knowledge and development work with the number two patent holder (Honda). Together they have over 1,200 patents and aim not to let them all sit on a shelf collecting dust.

According to Dan Flores of GM communications, GM sees great potential in hydrogen, and has been on the ground floor with a running hydrogen fuel cell van back in 1966, not to mention progressive development work through the end of last millennium into this, up until today.

This 2007 Chevy Equinox FCV has crossed 100,000 miles,.

This 2007 Chevy Equinox FCV has crossed 100,000 miles. GM has now gotten its platinum down to under 10 grams per fuel cell stack, and has otherwise seriously whittled costs as it works to further do so.

The company in 2007 also built 119 Equinox-based FCVs which have accrued 3 million miles. Some have been taken out of service, some have crashed off the road, some are still in development engineers hands.

Other GM test fleets and work on classified projects with the U.S. military are also underway. All its FCV work has been consolidated at its powertrain development facility in Pontiac, Mich., where it also works on battery powered vehicles.

1966! This thing pre-dates the Apollo mission.

1966! This beauty pre-dates the Apollo mission.

In short, GM is not asleep at the hydrogen fuel cell wheel, and timeframe here too is around 2020 though GM has made no production vehicle announcements like Honda has.

Since 2002 Honda has been at FCV development, and as mentioned above it is now forging ahead with its second-generation follow-up to the FCX Clarity. Honda may be able to accelerate its work because it has free access to all of GM’s intellectual property and the will to use it ASAP.

Others

The collaborators mentioned above have built multiple fuel cell prototypes and a comprehensive listing of all they’ve done is beyond this survey article’s scope.

Briefly, companies which have also built at least one FCV prototype include Chrysler, Jeep Suzuki, Mitsubishi, Subaru, Mazda, Kia, Volkswagen, Audi, Peugeot, Renault, Alfa Romeo, Fiat, Tata, and Morgan.

At least Volkswagen with its HyMotion FCV and its Audi division with its innovative plug-in hybrid version of the A7 FCV say they are essentially ready for production and looking to the market.

Audi_H-Tron-A7

True enough, today there is negligible refueling, high costs, and questionable well-to-wheel analyses to ponder, but the two-dozen hydrogen-FCV-developing nameplates are of course for-profit companies.

Not all are prepared to go to market even if there were a hydrogen station on every corner because costs are still upside down. But that will change, say at least eight major manufacturers which in turn have several subdivisions.

Collectively they’ve spent untold sums, some began work on fuel cells before battery electrified efforts, and a lot is now tied up in the quest for the hydrogen highway.

Lux: lower-cost flow batteries likely to create $190M energy storage market in 2020

Lux: lower-cost flow batteries likely to create $190M energy storage market in 2020

10 December 2014

Lower costs redox flow batteries will likely carve out a 360 MWh market for stationary energy storage in 2020, worth $190 million, according to Lux Research. In the optimistic case, significant project cost reduction could yield a $380-million opportunity or 760 MWh of flow battery systems in 2020.

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Within the stationary energy storage market, four flow battery chemistries, led by vanadium-based systems, are gaining commercial traction. The vanadium redox flow battery (VRFB) is the most mature technology, and accounts for 75 MWh of deployed systems.Lux Research analysts evaluated factors driving cost reduction in flow batteries, and market strategies. Among their findings:

  • ZnBr is cheapest but questions remain. In Lux Research’s model, VRFBs are the most expensive flow battery chemistry, costing $516/kWh in 2024. Zinc bromine (ZnBr) will be the cheapest flow battery at $391/kWh in the same year, but questions remain surrounding their lifetime and operating costs.

  • Improving power density is key. Flow batteries suffer from relatively poor power density, and improving this metric will drive down costs. Improvements in cell stack power density, for example, can cut VRFB system costs by 33%.

  • Lowering vanadium input costs will not be a panacea. VRFB developers are claiming that sourcing vanadium from flyash will reduce costs from over $500/kWh today to $300/kWh at scale. However, Lux finds that even in the unrealistic scenario of a free vanadium electrolyte, VRFB system costs will be $324/kWh in 2024.

The report, titled “Flow Battery Cost Reduction: Exploring Strategies to Improve Market Adoption,” is part of the Lux Research Energy Storage Intelligence service.

DNV GL launches HYREADY project to prepare natural gas industry for hydrogen; power-to-gas

DNV GL launches HYREADY project to prepare natural gas industry for hydrogen; power-to-gas

10 December 2014

DNV GL has initiated a global joint industry project (JIP) to help prepare the natural gas distribution infrastructure for the injection of hydrogen produced from renewable sources. HYREADY involves stakeholders from the natural gas value chain, including natural gas transmission and distribution system operators (TSOs and DSOs) and technology providers. The project remains open for other participants to join.

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The HYREADY initiative will encourage the industry to ”Be ready for Hydrogen” by developing practical processes and procedures for the introduction of hydrogen to the grid. The project partners will work together to deliver a broadly accepted methodological description of the steps and aspects to be considered by TSOs and DSOs across the globe on the measures they could take to prepare natural gas grids for hydrogen injection with acceptable consequences.

We have seen an increasing number of projects needing access to natural gas infrastructure for renewable gases. With multiple organizations having the same objective, our industry guidelines will address the how-to questions for gas system operators so they can be confident both in preparing their natural gas grids for the accommodation of hydrogen and in the consequences related to hydrogen injection.

Successfully to introduce pure hydrogen (e.g. from Power-to-Gas) and hydrogen containing mixtures (e.g. syngas) into natural gas grids, the impact and acceptability needs to be assessed to evaluate amongst others the performance and safety of end user appliances, system integrity and integrity management, energy transport capacity and compression efficiency.

The project will run for two years and is split into four work packages; transmission systems, distribution systems, end-user infrastructure and appliances (both domestic and industrial) and the design of a hydrogen injection facility. The impact of hydrogen on the natural gas system will be addressed on both a component and system level. HYREADY will be based on existing knowledge: there is no experimental work foreseen to be carried out in the framework of this project.

HYREADY will capture the outcomes of the project into a practical methodological description of the steps and aspects to be considered to support the actual implementation of hydrogen injection into the natural gas system.

HyperSolar reaches 1.25 V for water-splitting with its self-contained low-cost photoelectrochemical nanosystem

HyperSolar reaches 1.25 V for water-splitting with its self-contained low-cost photoelectrochemical nanosystem

10 December 2014

HyperSolar, Inc. announced that it had reached 1.25 volts (V) of water-splitting voltage with its novel low-cost electrolysis technology. Future development efforts will focus on increasing the currents and photovoltages beyond 1.5V.

The theoretical minimum voltage needed to split water molecules into hydrogen and oxygen is 1.23 V (at 25 °C at pH 0). However, in real world systems, 1.5 V or more is generally needed because of the low reaction kinetics. So far, other researchers have mainly achieved this voltage level through the use of either inefficient materials, such as titanium oxide, or very expensive semiconductors, such as gallium arsenide, HyperSolar noted. Further, overcoming the corrosive degradation of these “artificial photosynthesis” systems remains a challenge and has thus far eluded commercialization.

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HyperSolar’s research is centered on developing a low-cost and submersible hydrogen production particle that can split water molecules using sunlight, emulating the core functions of photosynthesis. Each particle is a complete hydrogen generator that contains a novel high voltage solar cell bonded to chemical catalysts by a proprietary encapsulation coating.

Hypersolar’s technology has two main features:

  • Self-contained Photoelectrochemical Nanosystem. The low-cost nano-size particle technology is designed to mimic photosynthesis and contains a solar absorber that generates electrons from sunlight, as well as integrated cathode and anode areas to readily split water and transfer those electrons to the molecular bonds of hydrogen.

    Particle-H2O-large
    Nanosystem for water electrolysis. Click to enlarge.

    Unlike solar panels or wind turbines that produce a sizeable number of electrons that will be lost before reaching the hydrogen bonds, the nanoparticles are optimized to ensure maximal electron generation and utilization efficiency, the company claims. Consequently, the nanoparticle technology uses substantially fewer expensive photovoltaic elements than conventional solar panels to achieve the same system level efficiency. This lowers the system cost of what is essentially an electrolysis process.

  • Protective Coating. The biggest problem with submerging photovoltaic elements in water for direct electrolysis is corrosion and short circuiting. To address this problem, HyperSolar developed a protective coating that encapsulates key elements of the nanoparticle to allow it to function for a long periods of time in a wide range of water conditions without corrosion. This allows the nanoparticles to be submerged or dissolved into virtually any source of water, such as sea water, runoff water, river water, or waste water, instead of purified distilled water.

In October, HyperSolar reported the development of a novel reactor design and system architecture that circumvents the need for an oxygen-hydrogen separation process. Self-contained sunlight-driven water-splitting technology—“artificial photosynthesis”—typically produces hydrogen and oxygen gas bubbles in the same reactor. This hydrogen-oxygen gas mixture is potentially explosive and must be quickly separated. Current gas separation technology uses selective membranes and is very expensive and the membranes need to frequently replaced.

HyperSolar’s system uses a high voltage solar cell, wrapped in the company’s patent pending polymer coating, that serves two functions: (1) converts sunlight into electricity to split water into hydrogen on one side, and oxygen on the other side, and (2) acts as a physical barrier preventing oxygen from combining with hydrogen. The respective hydrogen and oxygen gas bubbles to the top of the reactor as two separate and pure gas streams.

Our teams at the University of California, Santa Barbara and at the University of Iowa have been working diligently to achieve efficient renewable hydrogen production. Our low cost, submersible semiconductor technology does not require a fossil fuel component, making the process truly as ‘green’ as possible. We are pleased that this milestone brings us one step closer to producing hydrogen fuel at or near the point of distribution, and at a cost reasonable enough to ensure industrial scalability.

XL Hybrids installs hybrid drives in 4 City of Boston vans

XL Hybrids installs hybrid drives in 4 City of Boston vans

10 December 2014

XL Hybrids, Inc. announced the successful installation of its XL3 Hybrid Electric Drive System (earlier post) in four city-owned vans for The City of Boston. The newly converted vans support the Greenovate Boston goal of reducing greenhouse gas emissions by 25% by 2020 and 80% by 2050.

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The City of Boston is striving to replace 10% of its fleet each year with alternative fuel vehicles. Currently, all diesel-powered vehicles use a B20 biodiesel blend.

We have more than 160 full-sized passenger and cargo vans in our fleet. Since XL Hybrids is based in Boston, working with them is simple and smart. The ability to retrofit vans from our existing fleet allowed us to see immediate benefits. There were no driver training or maintenance requirements. I look forward to ordering new vans with the XL Hybrids system in the coming months.

As a designated Massachusetts Green Community, Boston has been replacing older sedans with alternative fuel vehicles over the past three years. In addition, the city initiated a vehicle sharing pool in 2012 as part of its commitment to lowering greenhouse gas emissions by reducing fuel usage.

The four converted vans are being used by the Boston Transportation Department’s Enforcement Division, the Elderly Affairs Department’s Senior Shuttle Service, and the Central Fleet.