Materials, methods and models

In the present work the solar radiation is forecasted with the non-hydrostatic model Advanced Regional Prediction System (ARPS). This model is providing its forecast weather variables for a horizontal grid of (0.12 x 0.12)° resolution with a sampling interval of 10 min. The model is simulated at the LEPTEN laboratory (Laboratory of Energy Conversion Process Engineering and Energy Technology), former LABSOLAR, at the Federal University of Santa Catarina. The simulation assimilates the data of the global reanalysis delivered by the National Center for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) [12]. The analysis data characterize the initial condition at every 6 h, necessary to operate ARPS in actual time. The reanalysis data represent improved analysis data of the atmosphere. Both the analysis and reanalysis data are based on atmospheric measurements and their interpolations, as well as on the last forecasts of the GFS, which can accomplish forecasts until a ten days horizon. The operational forecast uncertainty includes both the analysis and the forecast uncertainty. In the present article only the uncertainty based on the reanalysis are verified. Therefore the reanalysis data, based on the GFS model, is assimilated with the regional ARPS model in a 6 h interval. For the uncertainty verification the 24 h mean value of the downward short wave radiation of the ARPS output is compared to the measured mean value of the global radiation. In a second step a statistical correction for the reanalysis uncertainty is accomplished. In the text that follows the daily energy E [Wh/m2] is equal to the daily mean radiation H [W/m2] multiplied by 24 hours.

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