Modeling and Analysis of Chinese Exposure to Solar Radiation Based on the Available Meteorological Data at CMA, China

Yu Qiang1* and Wang Zhifeng2

1,2 Institute of Electrical Engineering, CAS P. O.BOX 2703 Beijing 100190, China Corresponding Author, yuqiang1984@mail. iee. ac. cn


The distribution of solar radiation is very important for choosing sites for solar power tower plants. In this paper the observed data which include solar radiation and sunshine duration of eight typical cities of China during the period 1994-2003 are used to establish a correlation equation between monthly average daily values of clearness and relative sunshine. The model is used to estimate the global solar radiation of the whole country. And it is proved to be good results (greater than 94% in most cases). The predictive efficiency of this model is also compared with some other models which are believed to be applicable globally in terms of mean percentage error (MPE), mean bias error (MBE) and root mean square error (RMSE). And the results prove that it is also better than that of those models.

Key Words: global solar radiation, sunshine duration, MBE, MABE, RMSE.

1. Introduction

The design of a solar energy conversion system must always start with a study of solar radiation data at a site. One of the most important requirements in the design is the information on the intensity of solar radiation at a given location [1]. Unfortunately, there are very few meteorological stations that measure global solar radiation. Solar radiation data are still very scarce, especially in developing countries. So we must consider other methods to calculate relative solar data for places where they are not directly measured, many attempts have been made to develop models and empirical correlations that can predict the amount of solar radiation available at a given location from a few input parameters.

While it has been proved that a number of commonly measurable atmospheric and meteorological parameters such as turbidity, relative humidity, degree of cloudiness, temperature and sunshine duration taken severally or jointly, affect the magnitude of the global radiation incident on a given location. And the preponderance of data point to the fact that the greatest influence is exerted by sunshine hours.

There are several correlations [2-7] to have been developed that predict the correlation between the global radiation and the percentage of bright sunshine hours in a simple linear regression form (the Angstrom-Prescott type). And some authors have also developed quadratic correlation [2, 4, 6] model and multiple linear regression. The study of this paper is to establish a linear regression form which uses the data of eight typical cities of China for estimation global solar radiation for the cities where there are no meteorological stations but have similar meteorological conditions.

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