Forecasts of the future spent fuel quantities are influenced by two or three major factors. The first is the projected growth of nuclear energy use. The International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) periodically updates its projections of global growth in nuclear energy use.1 As in previous years, the 2010 Nuclear Technology Review presented low and high estimates of nuclear capacity in 2030; these were 511 and 807 GW(e) respectively. Both figures were around 8% higher than the estimates presented in the previous year and they continued a generally increasing trend over the decade. This well illustrates the inherent uncertainties in using these figures to derive estimates of future arisings of spent fuel. The other factor is the fate of spent fuel discharged from power reactors. No facilities for disposal of commercial spent fuel were available in 2010 so that spent fuel could either be stored or reprocessed. The total amount of nuclear fuel discharged by that year was approximately 320 000 tonnes of heavy metal (t HM). Of this amount approximately 95 000 t HM had already been reprocessed and about 225 000 t HM was stored either in at-reactor storage pools or in away-from — reactor storage facilities (dry or wet storage technology). So in addition to the installed nuclear capacity, the actual quantities of stored fuel will also depend on whether fuel is reprocessed or not. Reprocessing capacities in 2010 were 5000 t HM per year with another 1000 t HM capacity expected to start operation soon at Rokkasho in Japan. The last factor that may change the accumulated quantities of spent fuel is the introduction of advanced fuel cycles such as MOX or higher burn up fuel. Figure 15.1 shows a prediction of spent fuel arisings until 2020 and shows the distribution between storage and reprocessing. The figure assumes that total nuclear generation in 2020 will be about 420 GW(e), which is 13% higher than 2009.

Figure 15.2 shows the cumulative fuel discharges up to 2010 by country. It omits reprocessed fuel.