As the country where nuclear fission was discovered, Germany was an early enthusiast for nuclear power. Eurobarometer data show that, prior to 1986, fewer than 40% of people there thought that nuclear power represented an unacceptable risk — amongst the lowest figures in the EU. After Chernobyl the figure rose to around 60%. The 1998 Social Democrat-Green coalition government agreed to phase out nuclear power by 2022 but, following the 2009 election, the Christian Democrat-Liberal Democrat coalition softened this and negotiated with the NPP operators to extend the lifetime of the reactors by up to 14 years in return for additional taxes; this was approved by parliament in November 2010.44 Following the Fukushima accident, however, the government changed its policy resulting in an immediate and permanent shut down of the eight oldest reactors and the closure of the remaining nine by 2022. The new nuclear taxes have been retained, however, and some utilities are taking legal action.

Government policy is now45 to increase the renewable share of electricity production to more than 35% by 2020 and, at the same time, to reduce GHG emissions by 40% (compared to 1990 levels) while reducing energy consumption overall. The increase in renewable electricity from around 17% to 35% is almost equivalent to the loss in nuclear capacity (23% in 2009) so that, in round terms, one carbon-neutral source of electricity will simply substitute for another. Since the other energy sources will remain largely the same, it becomes clear that meeting the GHG emissions target is mostly dependent on a reduction in energy demand. Here the primary target is a 20% reduction in overall energy consumption by 2020. Simultaneously meeting this target and providing growth in the economy will be a significant challenge: the current rate of increase in energy productivity (GDP per unit of energy consumption) will need to at least double.

The targets set by the German government for 2050 are equally demanding: renewables to provide 85 to 95% of electricity production; and an 80 to 95% reduction in GHG emissions compared to 1990. Energy conservation is again central to meeting these longer-term targets and resolves into separate goals to reduce, by 2050, overall energy consumption to 50% of 2008 levels, electricity usage to 75% of 2008 and transport to 60% of 2005. When we consider that electricity will need to substitute for fossil fuels in, for example, transport, the target for electricity consumption appears to be especially ambitious. Whether savings can actually be made on this scale remains to be seen but, clearly, by eschewing any use of nuclear power, including importation, Germany has not made its task any easier. The country is, in effect, conducting a huge experiment that could significantly damage — or benefit — its economy. As the largest and most prosperous of the European nations it is, perhaps, the one best placed to succeed and it will be interesting to see whether, in the first decade of this policy, the country can simultaneously achieve its goals of reductions in GHG emissions, economic growth and phasing out of nuclear power while maintaining security of supply.